Switch: a planning tool for power systems with large shares of intermittent renewable energy.

Wind and solar power are highly variable, so it is it unclear how large a role they can play in future power systems. This work introduces a new open-source electricity planning model--Switch--that identifies the least-cost strategy for using renewable and conventional generators and transmission in a large power system over a multidecade period. Switch includes an unprecedented amount of spatial and temporal detail, making it possible to address a new type of question about the optimal design and operation of power systems with large amounts of renewable power. A case study of California for 2012-2027 finds that there is no maximum possible penetration of wind and solar power--these resources could potentially be used to reduce emissions 90% or more below 1990 levels without reducing reliability or severely raising the cost of electricity. This work also finds that policies that encourage customers to shift electricity demand to times when renewable power is most abundant (e.g., well-timed charging of electric vehicles) could make it possible to achieve radical emission reductions at moderate costs.

[1]  Matthias Fripp,et al.  Optimal investment in wind and solar power in California , 2008 .

[2]  J. Kiviluoma,et al.  Global potential for wind-generated electricity , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[3]  David C. Yu,et al.  Transportation Model Based Hybrid Methods for Transmission Network Planning , 2006 .

[4]  Geothermal Energy.  Western Wind and Solar Integration Study , 2010 .

[5]  N. Lewis,et al.  Powering the planet: Chemical challenges in solar energy utilization , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[6]  W. R. Morrow,et al.  The Technology Path to Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts by 2050: The Pivotal Role of Electricity , 2012, Science.

[7]  N. Darghouth,et al.  Tracking the Sun II: The Installed Cost of Photovoltaics in the U.S. from 1998-2008 , 2010 .

[8]  A. Mills,et al.  Implications of Wide-Area Geographic Diversity for Short- Term Variability of Solar Power , 2010 .

[9]  W. Beckman,et al.  Solar Engineering of Thermal Processes , 1985 .

[10]  S. Randalls.  History of the 2°C climate target , 2010 .

[11]  Joseph F. DeCarolis,et al.  The economics of large-scale wind power in a carbon constrained world , 2006 .

[12]  Kara Clark,et al.  Western Wind and Solar Integration Study , 2011 .

[13]  F. Alvarado,et al.  Electric Power Transfer Capability : Concepts , Applications , Sensitivity , Uncertainty , 2002 .

[14]  Matthias Fripp,et al.  Greenhouse gas emissions from operating reserves used to backup large-scale wind power. , 2011, Environmental science & technology.

[15]  Andreas Ehrenmann,et al.  Space and Time: Wind in an Investment Planning Model , 2006 .

[16]  Climate Stabilization Targets : Emissions , Concentrations , and Impacts over Decades to Millennia Committee on Stabilization Targets for Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations ; National Research Council , 2011 .

[17]  J. H. Nelson,et al.  High-resolution modeling of the western North American power system demonstrates low-cost and low-carbon futures , 2012 .

[18]  Ruben Romero,et al.  A hierarchical decomposition approach for transmission network expansion planning , 1994 .

[19]  William A. Beckman,et al.  Solar Engineering of Thermal Processes, 2nd ed. , 1994 .

[20]  R. Snyder.  California Irrigation Management Information System , 1984, American Potato Journal.

[21]  N. Meinshausen,et al.  Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne , 2009, Nature.

[22]  A. Gerlach,et al.  Global Overview on Grid-Parity Event Dynamics , 2010 .