Dynamic modeling of societal impacts resulting from disabling or enabling infrastructure during military missions

The qualitative relationship between socioeconomic activity and infrastructure is intuitively understood and embedded in our general knowledge. However, no theoretical or applied framework is currently available for quantifying how a given society is affected by significant changes imposed on infrastructure service levels. The capability to quantify the dynamic relationship between a population and changes in its infrastructure systems could have many applications in planning and executing U.S. Army military operations, whether supporting combat, stabilization, or recovery missions. This study investigates how changes imposed on infrastructure level of service will affect both dependent populations and interdependent socioeconomic sectors. The research identified of 22 sectors of socioeconomic activity common to all societies; drafted lists of general infrastructure assets common to each of these sectors; and analyzed infrastructure interdependencies among the sectors and populations served. A quantitative methodology was then developed for assessing and weighting the sociocultural impacts of changes in infrastructure service levels throughout a society. This methodology provides the conceptual basis for a decision-support tool that will inform mission planning, targeting, and infrastructure options (disable, preserve, rehabilitate) in pre-intervention, postintervention, or humanitarian missions. ERDC/CERL TR-15-22 iii