Natural hazards, vulnerability and structural resilience: tsunamis and industrial tanks

ABSTRACT The paper presents an integrated framework which deals with natural hazards (tsunamis), physical vulnerability modelling, risk of failure for industrial structures (metal structures) and structural resilience provided by plastic adaptation. Simplified models are proposed to describe the run-up and wave height attenuation in case of tsunamis. The results are calibrated in the case of important tsunamis having taken place in Asian region. The mechanical vulnerability of cylindrical metal tanks erected near the shoreline is also investigated. The fragility curves are then developed in order to describe the multimodal failure: overturning, rupture of anchorages and sliding, buoyancy, excessive bending effects or buckling. Corresponding fragility curves are developed under various conditions: height of tsunami waves, filling ratios and service conditions of the tanks, friction tank/ground as well as dimensions effects. Probabilistic description of the natural hazard and the fragility curves are presented. Sensitivity analysis is also performed in order to investigate the effect of various governing parameters. Furthermore, resilience concepts and metrics are proposed. Theoretical description of the damages and post-disaster recovery functions are discussed: plastic adaptation as well as elastic and plastic attractors.

[1]  B. Oken,et al.  A systems approach to stress, stressors and resilience in humans , 2015, Behavioural Brain Research.

[2]  Ana Paula Barbosa-Póvoa,et al.  Resilience metrics in the assessment of complex supply-chains performance operating under demand uncertainty , 2015 .

[3]  Ruth Beilin,et al.  Resilience for disaster risk management in a changing climate: Practitioners’ frames and practices , 2015 .

[4]  Christopher Nemeth,et al.  Remaining sensitive to the possibility of failure , 2008 .

[5]  S. Koshimura,et al.  Tsunami Fragility — A New Measure to Identify Tsunami Damage — , 2009 .

[6]  Guangtao Fu,et al.  A global analysis approach for investigating structural resilience in urban drainage systems. , 2015, Water research.

[7]  John A. Antonopoulos,et al.  STATISTICAL AND NUMERICAL ANALYSIS OF TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS IN CONFINED WATERS , 1994 .

[8]  Navid Sahebjamnia,et al.  Integrated business continuity and disaster recovery planning: Towards organizational resilience , 2015, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[9]  Ioan Nistor,et al.  Tsunami-Induced Forces on Structures , 2009 .

[10]  Philip L.-F. Liu,et al.  Tsunami hazard and early warning system in South China Sea , 2009 .

[11]  Abdollah Shafieezadeh,et al.  Scenario-based resilience assessment framework for critical infrastructure systems: Case study for seismic resilience of seaports , 2014, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[12]  Tarcisio Abreu Saurin,et al.  A systematic literature review of resilience engineering: Research areas and a research agenda proposal , 2015, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[13]  Erik Hollnagel,et al.  Resilience Engineering in Practice: A Guidebook , 2012 .

[14]  Henrik Tehler,et al.  The capability concept - On how to define and describe capability in relation to risk, vulnerability and resilience , 2015, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[15]  Daisuke Sugawara,et al.  New insights of tsunami hazard from the 2011 Tohoku-Oki event , 2011 .

[16]  Panitan Lukkunaprasit,et al.  Experimental Verification of FEMA P646 Tsunami Loading , 2009 .

[17]  Nikolaos A. Kampanis,et al.  Application of a finite difference computational model to the simulation of earthquake generated tsunamis , 2013 .

[18]  Sandra Jerez,et al.  Domino Effects and Industrial Risks: Integrated Probabilistic Framework – Case of Tsunamis Effects , 2014 .

[19]  Adrian Constantin,et al.  On the relevance of soliton theory to tsunami modelling , 2009 .

[20]  M. Sam Mannan,et al.  Resilience engineering of industrial processes: Principles and contributing factors , 2012 .

[21]  William C. Webster,et al.  Tsunami simulation with Green–Naghdi theory , 2011 .

[22]  Siambabala Bernard Manyena,et al.  Disaster resilience: A question of ‘multiple faces’ and ‘multiple spaces’? , 2014 .

[23]  M. A. Helal,et al.  Tsunamis from nature to physics , 2008 .

[24]  H. A. Dijkstra,et al.  Sensitivity and resilience of the climate system: A conditional nonlinear optimization approach , 2015, Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul..

[25]  Arun Chawla,et al.  Diffusion and dispersion characterization of a numerical tsunami model , 2007 .

[26]  Per A. Madsen.  On the evolution and run-up of tsunamis , 2010 .

[27]  Sandra Jerez,et al.  Vulnerability and Resilience under Effects of Tsunamis: Case of Industrial Plants☆ , 2014 .

[28]  Ilan Kelman,et al.  Climate Change’s Role in Disaster Risk Reduction’s Future: Beyond Vulnerability and Resilience , 2015, International Journal of Disaster Risk Science.

[29]  Zachary A. Collier,et al.  Metrics for energy resilience , 2014 .

[30]  Carol J. Friedland,et al.  A critical analysis of hazard resilience measures within sustainability assessment frameworks , 2014 .

[31]  P. Shi,et al.  The 2011 eastern Japan great earthquake disaster: Overview and comments , 2011 .

[32]  R. Paris,et al.  Reassessment of hydrodynamic equations: Minimum flow velocity to initiate boulder transport by high energy events (storms, tsunamis) , 2011 .

[33]  Elise Miller-Hooks,et al.  Measuring and maximizing resilience of freight transportation networks , 2012, Comput. Oper. Res..

[34]  Michael Harré,et al.  A temporal framework of social resilience indicators of communities to flood, case studies: Wagga wagga and Kempsey, NSW, Australia , 2015 .

[35]  Kwok Fai Cheung,et al.  Modeling of 500-year tsunamis for probabilistic design of coastal infrastructure in the Pacific Nort , 2011 .

[36]  Moharram D. Pirooz,et al.  Modeling the near-field effects of the worst-case tsunami in the Makran subduction zone , 2009 .

[37]  Clay Naito,et al.  Fuel Storage Container Performance during the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, Tsunami , 2013 .

[38]  Freddy Vinet,et al.  A spatial analysis of the December 26th, 2004 tsunami-induced damages: Lessons learned for a better risk assessment integrating buildings vulnerability , 2011 .

[39]  Angus Morrison-Saunders,et al.  Managing uncertainty, ambiguity and ignorance in impact assessment by embedding evolutionary resilience, participatory modelling and adaptive management. , 2015, Journal of environmental management.

[40]  C. Nemeth.  Resilience Engineering Perspectives, Volume 1: Remaining Sensitive to the Possibility of Failure , 2008 .

[41]  Lei Chen,et al.  Buckling of anchored cylindrical shells of uniform thickness under wind load , 2012 .

[42]  Karen McArdle,et al.  Physical Disease and Resilient Outcomes: A Systematic Review of Resilience Definitions and Study Methods , 2014, Psychosomatics.

[43]  Ka Tsuyuki,et al.  Modeling of the Runup Heights of the Hokkaido-Nansei-Oki Tsunami of 12 July 1993 , 1995 .

[44]  Kash Barker,et al.  Resilience-based network component importance measures , 2013, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[45]  Leire Labaka,et al.  Resilience framework for critical infrastructures: An empirical study in a nuclear plant , 2015, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[46]  Majid Motamedzade,et al.  Challenges in building resilience engineering (RE) and adaptive capacity: A field study in a chemical plant , 2012 .

[47]  S. S. Chopra,et al.  Interconnectedness and interdependencies of critical infrastructures in the US economy: Implications for resilience , 2015 .

[48]  Tracy Yuen,et al.  A systematic review of resilience in the physically ill. , 2011, Psychosomatics.

[49]  Haruo Hayashi,et al.  Spatial Exposure Analysis on Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake Disaster , 2010 .

[50]  Tsz Leung Yip,et al.  Predicting tsunami arrivals: Estimates and policy implications , 2009 .

[51]  Ahmed Mebarki.  A comparative study of different PGA attenuation and error models: Case of 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake , 2009 .

[52]  Sylfest Glimsdal,et al.  Tsunami hazard and exposure on the global scale , 2012 .

[53]  Valérie Angeon,et al.  Reviewing Composite Vulnerability and Resilience Indexes: A Sustainable Approach and Application , 2014 .

[54]  Ken Hatayama.  Tsunami Damage to Oil Storage Tanks in the MW9.0 2011 Tohoku, Japan Earthquake , 2015 .

[55]  J. Wiseman,et al.  The general bathymetric chart of the oceans , 1955 .

[56]  Jonas Lundberg,et al.  Systemic resilience model , 2015, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[57]  Sri Lanka,et al.  TSUNAMI ON 26 DECEMBER 2004: SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF TSUNAMI HEIGHT AND THE EXTENT OF INUNDATION IN SRI LANKA , 2006 .

[58]  Raghav Pant,et al.  Stochastic measures of resilience and their application to container terminals , 2014, Comput. Ind. Eng..

[59]  Royce A. Francis,et al.  A metric and frameworks for resilience analysis of engineered and infrastructure systems , 2014, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[60]  土木学会.  TSUNAMI '93 : proceedings of the IUGG/IOC International Tsunami Symposium, Wakayama, Japan, August 23-27, 1993 , 1993 .

[61]  Masafumi Matsuyama,et al.  Tsunami Force Acting on Oil Tanks and Buckling Analysis for Tsunami Pressure , 2007 .

[62]  Luis A. Godoy,et al.  Performance of Storage Tanks in Oil Facilities Damaged by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita , 2007 .

[63]  Jack Asavanant,et al.  High grid resolution and parallelized tsunami simulation with fully nonlinear Boussinesq equations , 2011 .

[64]  Finn Løvholt,et al.  Fundamental mechanisms for tsunami generation by submarine mass flows in idealised geometries , 2005 .

[65]  Ahmed Mebarki,et al.  Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis for Restoration After Tsunamis and Floods: The Case of Dwellings and Industrial Plants , 2015 .

[66]  Min Ouyang,et al.  Resilience assessment of interdependent infrastructure systems: With a focus on joint restoration modeling and analysis , 2015, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..