Economically Sustainable Growth of Perovskite Photovoltaics Manufacturing

Summary The significant capital expense of photovoltaics manufacturing has made it difficult for new cell and module technologies to enter the market. We present two technoeconomic models that analyze the sustainable growth of perovskite manufacturing for an R2R single-junction technology and a perovskite-silicon tandem module, focusing on the impacts of economies of scale and average selling price on profitability. We establish a cost range of $3.30/W to $0.53/W for flexible modules manufactured in factory sizes ranging from 0.3 MW/year to 1 GW/year. In addition, we model the cost to manufacture a tandem module consisting of a single-junction perovskite cell stacked in 4-terminal configuration onto a silicon cell and show how an existing manufacturer can grow at a faster rate by co-investing in tandems. Our analyses highlight potential routes to market for perovskite photovoltaics and the possibility to sustainably grow a photovoltaics manufacturing company even in markets with higher labor rates.

[1]  R. Margolis,et al.  Terawatt-scale photovoltaics: Trajectories and challenges , 2017, Science.

[2]  Gregory F. Nemet,et al.  Beyond the learning curve: factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics , 2006 .

[3]  Easwaramoorthi Ramasamy,et al.  Flexible Perovskite Solar Cells , 2018 .

[4]  R. Higgins,et al.  How Much Growth Can a Firm Afford , 1977 .

[5]  Rahul Bhattacharyya,et al.  Self‐Powered Sensors Enabled by Wide‐Bandgap Perovskite Indoor Photovoltaic Cells , 2019, Advanced Functional Materials.

[6]  Michael Woodhouse,et al.  Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Module Manufacturing Costs and Sustainable Pricing: 1H 2018 Benchmark and Cost Reduction Road Map , 2019 .

[7]  Yujing Li,et al.  Cost Analysis of Perovskite Tandem Photovoltaics , 2018, Joule.

[8]  Kai Zhu,et al.  Efficient two-terminal all-perovskite tandem solar cells enabled by high-quality low-bandgap absorber layers , 2018, Nature Energy.

[9]  Rahul Bhattacharyya,et al.  Perovskite PV-Powered RFID: Enabling Low-Cost Self-Powered IoT Sensors , 2019, IEEE Sensors Journal.

[10]  E. Olivetti,et al.  Designing for Manufacturing Scalability in Clean Energy Research , 2018, Joule.

[11]  Christopher J. Tassone,et al.  Scalable Fabrication of Perovskite Solar Cells to Meet Climate Targets , 2018, Joule.

[12]  Martin A. Green,et al.  Manufacturing cost and market potential analysis of demonstrated roll-to-roll perovskite photovoltaic cell processes , 2018 .

[13]  K. Catchpole,et al.  Rubidium Multication Perovskite with Optimized Bandgap for Perovskite‐Silicon Tandem with over 26% Efficiency , 2017 .

[14]  Tonio Buonassisi,et al.  Accelerating Materials Development via Automation, Machine Learning, and High-Performance Computing , 2018, Joule.

[15]  Paul A. Basore,et al.  A manufacturing cost estimation method with uncertainty analysis and its application to perovskite on glass photovoltaic modules , 2017 .

[16]  Ian Marius Peters,et al.  Technology and Market Perspective for Indoor Photovoltaic Cells , 2019, Joule.

[17]  Tonio Buonassisi,et al.  Economic viability of thin-film tandem solar modules in the United States , 2018 .

[18]  D. Forgacs,et al.  Industrial Opportunities and Challenges for Perovskite Photovoltaic Technology , 2019, Solar RRL.

[19]  Jeffrey C. Grossman,et al.  Six Degrees of Separation: Connecting Research with Users and Cost Analysis , 2017 .

[20]  Rebecca A. Belisle,et al.  Perovskite-perovskite tandem photovoltaics with optimized band gaps , 2016, Science.

[21]  A. Ashta.  Sustainable Growth Rates: Refining a Measure , 2008 .

[22]  Jonathan P. Mailoa,et al.  23.6%-efficient monolithic perovskite/silicon tandem solar cells with improved stability , 2017, Nature Energy.

[23]  Michael Woodhouse,et al.  The capital intensity of photovoltaics manufacturing: barrier to scale and opportunity for innovation , 2015 .

[24]  Mikkel Jørgensen,et al.  Cost analysis of roll-to-roll fabricated ITO free single and tandem organic solar modules based on data from manufacture , 2014 .

[25]  Mikkel Jørgensen,et al.  Upscaling of polymer solar cell fabrication using full roll-to-roll processing. , 2010, Nanoscale.

[26]  Varun Sivaram,et al.  Venture Capital and Cleantech: The Wrong Model for Energy Innovation , 2016 .

[27]  Zhen Li,et al.  Outlook and Challenges of Perovskite Solar Cells toward Terawatt-Scale Photovoltaic Module Technology , 2018, Joule.

[28]  Christian Breyer,et al.  Terawatt-scale photovoltaics: Transform global energy , 2019, Science.

[29]  Juan J. Diaz Leon,et al.  Fully textured monolithic perovskite/silicon tandem solar cells with 25.2% power conversion efficiency , 2018, Nature Materials.

[30]  Ian Marius Peters,et al.  Techno-economic analysis of tandem photovoltaic systems , 2016 .

[31]  David Feldman,et al.  Increasing markets and decreasing package weight for high-specific-power photovoltaics , 2018, Nature Energy.

[32]  G. Tian,et al.  The Most Appropriate Sustainable Growth Rate Model For Managers And Researchers , 2012 .

[33]  Gregory Wilson,et al.  Economically sustainable scaling of photovoltaics to meet climate targets , 2016, 2016 IEEE 43rd Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC).

[34]  H. Jung,et al.  Flexible Perovskite Solar Cell , 2019 .

[35]  V. J. Thomas,et al.  Market entry strategies for electric vehicle start-ups in the automotive industry – Lessons from Tesla Motors , 2019, Journal of Cleaner Production.

[36]  Frederik C. Krebs,et al.  Economic assessment of solar electricity production from organic-based photovoltaic modules in a domestic environment , 2011 .

[37]  Ilke Celik,et al.  A technoeconomic analysis of perovskite solar module manufacturing with low-cost materials and techniques , 2017 .