Predictors of outcome in severe, asymptomatic aortic stenosis.

BACKGROUND Whether to perform valve replacement in patients with asymptomatic but severe aortic stenosis is controversial. Therefore, we studied the natural history of this condition to identify predictors of outcome. METHODS During 1994, we identified 128 consecutive patients with asymptomatic, severe aortic stenosis (59 women and 69 men; mean [+/-SD] age, 60+/-18 years; aortic-jet velocity, 5.0+/-0.6 m per second). The patients were prospectively followed until 1998. RESULTS Follow-up information was available for 126 patients (98 percent) for a mean of 22+/-18 months. Event-free survival, with the end point defined as death (8 patients) or valve replacement necessitated by the development of symptoms (59 patients), was 67+/-5 percent at one year, 56+/-5 percent at two years, and 33+/-5 percent at four years. Five of the six deaths from cardiac disease were preceded by symptoms. According to multivariate analysis, only the extent of aortic-valve calcification was an independent predictor of outcome, whereas age, sex, and the presence or absence of coronary artery disease, hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia were not. Event-free survival for patients with no or mild valvular calcification was 92+/-5 percent at one year, 84+/-8 percent at two years, and 75+/-9 percent at four years, as compared with 60+/-6 percent, 47+/-6 percent, and 20+/-5 percent, respectively, for those with moderate or severe calcification. The rate of progression of stenosis, as reflected by the aortic-jet velocity, was significantly higher in patients who had cardiac events (0.45+/-0.38 m per second per year) than those who did not have cardiac events (0.14+/-0.18 m per second per year, P<0.001), and the rate of progression of stenosis provided useful prognostic information. Of the patients with moderately or severely calcified aortic valves whose aortic-jet velocity increased by 0.3 m per second or more within one year, 79 percent underwent surgery or died within two years of the observed increase. CONCLUSIONS In asymptomatic patients with aortic stenosis, it appears to be relatively safe to delay surgery until symptoms develop. However, outcomes vary widely. The presence of moderate or severe valvular calcification, together with a rapid increase in aortic-jet velocity, identifies patients with a very poor prognosis. These patients should be considered for early valve replacement rather than have surgery delayed until symptoms develop.

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