BUS TRANSIT ROUTE DEMAND MODEL (ABRIDGMENT)

This paper describes a model that will predict the effects of fare changes, route relocations, and headway changes on either an existing or a proposed bus route. The model should be applicable on a single-route basis so that systemwide models would not be required every time a new route extension was being considered. The model is based on the fact that transit ridership is related directly to the existence of both population and employment within good access times of the route. The model has been calibrated twice, once for Austin, Texas, and once for Kitchner-Waterloo, Ontario, The calibration results were found to be similar in both cases. The author concludes that the calibration results thus far have been promising for the two cities studied. The transferability of coefficients from one city to another is not directly possible. The model, in controlling for differences in automobile ownership, population, access to route, headways, shows considerable promise in comparing the performance of different routes and systems, and when sufficient route data have been gathered to allow for a more confident estimate of the parameters, it should be very useful for the planning, design, and operation of urban bus routes.