A geophysically constrained large ensemble analysis of the deglacial history of the North American ice-sheet complex

Abstract Past reconstructions of the deglaciation history of the North American (NA) ice-sheet complex have relied either on largely unconstrained and limited explorations of the phase space of solutions produced by glaciological models or upon geophysical inversions of relative sea-level (RSL) data which suffer from incomplete geographic coverage of the glaciated regions, load history amplitude/timing ambiguities, and a lack of a priori glaciological self-consistency. As a first step in the development of a much more highly constrained deglaciation history, we present a synthesis of these two previously disjoint methodologies based on a large ensemble of glacial cycle simulations using a three-dimensional thermo-mechanically coupled ice-sheet model. Twenty glacial system model parameters, chosen so as to best cover the true deglacial phase space, were varied across the ensemble. Furthermore, a new high-resolution digitized ice margin chronology was imposed on the model in order to significantly limit the uncertainties associated with deglacial climate forcing. The model is simultaneously constrained by a large set of high-quality RSL histories, a space geodetic observation of the present-day rate of vertical motion of the crust from Yellowknife and a traverse of absolute gravity measurements from the west coast of Hudson Bay southward into Iowa. The general form of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice topography that ensues when model results are subject to geophysical constraints is an ice sheet dominated by a large (3.3– 4.3 km maximum ice thickness) Keewatin dome to the west of Hudson Bay connected to a major ice ridge running southeast to the Great Lakes, together with a Hudson Bay region that has relatively thin ice and an Arctic region heavily incised by open water and/or ice shelves. Geographically restricted fast flows due to sub-glacial till deformation are shown to be critical to obtaining such a multi-domed late glacial Laurentide Ice Sheet structure, one that has been previously inferred on the basis of geomorphological data and that is required to fit the geophysical constraints. Our results further suggest that the NA contribution to LGM eustatic sea-level drop is likely to be in the range of 60– 75 m .

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