The Simplified Acute Physiology Score to Predict Outcome in Patients with Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

OBJECTIVE:Current prognosticators for patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) do not take into account signs of extracerebral organ dysfunction. This may explain the only moderate predictive value of these prognosticators. We assessed the prognostic value of the simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II in SAH patients. METHODS:In a retrospective cohort study of 148 consecutive SAH patients, we related the SAPS II calculated within 24 hours after admission to clinical and initial computed tomographic imaging characteristics using the Mann-Whitney U test. We compared the prognostic value of the SAPS II with that of the World Federation of Neurosurgical Surgeons score, the patient's age, and the amount of blood showing in computed tomographic imaging for the occurrence of delayed cerebral ischemia using Cox proportional hazards modeling or, for poor outcome (death or dependence), logistic regression modeling. RESULTS:In the univariate analysis, the SAPS II was the strongest prognosticator; in the multivariate model, the SAPS II was the only independent predictor for outcome (odds ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.06–1.11]). Patients in the highest tertile of SAPS II had a significantly higher risk of poor outcome than those in the lowest tertile (odds ratio, 30.9; 95% confidence interval, 9.9–96.7]). The SAPS II was also the only independent predictor for the occurrence of delayed cerebral ischemia (hazard ratio, 1.020; 95% confidence interval, 1.002–1.039]). CONCLUSION:The SAPS II is a useful and reliable prognosticator in SAH patients. This score may provide more information than specific SAH scales in predicting poor outcome or the occurrence of delayed cerebral ischemia in some circumstances.

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