Surrogate Model-Based Uncertainty Quantification for a Helical Gear Pair

Competitive industrial transmission systems must perform most efficiently with reference to complex requirements and conflicting key performance indicators. This design challenge translates into a high-dimensional multi-objective optimization problem that requires complex algorithms and evaluation of computationally expensive simulations to predict physical system behavior and design robustness. Crucial for the design decision-making process is the characterization, ranking, and quantification of relevant sources of uncertainties. However, due to the strict time limits of product development loops, the overall computational burden of uncertainty quantification (UQ) may even drive state-of-the-art parallel computing resources to their limits. Efficient machine learning (ML) tools and techniques emphasizing high-fidelity simulation data-driven training will play a fundamental role in enabling UQ in the early-stage development phase.This investigation surveys UQ methods with a focus on noise, vibration, and harshness (NVH) characteristics of transmission systems. Quasi-static 3D contact dynamic simulations are performed to evaluate the static transmission error (TE) of meshing gear pairs under different loading and boundary conditions. TE indicates NVH excitation and is typically used as an objective function in the early-stage design process. The limited system size allows large-scale design of experiments (DoE) and enables numerical studies of various UQ sampling and modeling techniques where the design parameters are treated as random variables associated with tolerances from manufacturing and assembly processes. The model accuracy of generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPC) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) is evaluated and compared. The results of the methods are discussed to conclude efficient and scalable solution procedures for robust design optimization.