Inversion of a simple petroleum expulsion model

A posteriori parameter distributions of a simple model of petroleum generation and expulsion have been estimated by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Generally, the most successfully constrained parameters are those of petroleum generation while the more weakly constrained parameters are those of petroleum expulsion. The importance of individual data types in parameters estimation as well as the resulting influence on the model outcome is clarified. This kind of information is valuable in the selection of data and data uncertainties needed for inverse estimation of model parameters. Other types observable data should be analyses in this manner to investigate their ability to improve the confidence in model results.

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