Water Origins over Central and Southern Japan during the Early Summer Rainy Season as Simulated with an Isotope Circulation Model

By applying the Japanese long-term Re-Analysis project (JRA-25) and the Japan Meteorological Agency Climate Data Assimilation System (JCDAS) data to a Rayleigh-type global one-layer isotope circulation model, we performed a long-term simulation and examined how water vapor is remotely transported to the vicinity of Japan from water source regions during the early summer rainy (Baiu) season. We validated the model outputs, comparing them with the stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios (δD and δ18O) of precipitation observed at two in situ sites in southern and central Japan during the 2010 Baiu, and determined that the correlations between the simulation and observation are comparable to those in precipitation in Thailand from August to October when the Asian summer monsoon withdraws. The model results demonstrate that the Baiu is characterized by relatively low values of δD and that the δD values over central Japan are lower than those over southern Japan. When the Baiu commences, Indian Ocean water increases rapidly and then contributes substantially to the total precipitable water until the withdrawal of the Baiu, which is partially responsible for the low values of δD. Once the Baiu withdraws, alternatively, Pacific Ocean water occupies most of the total precipitable water. Another signature of its withdrawal is the decrease in land water of the Eurasian continent. It is also clear that the intrusion of the Indian Ocean water into central Japan remained until the end of August in the extremely cool summers of 1993 and 2003, which is interpreted as an extraordinary persistence of the Baiu period.