A data-driven estimation method for potential passenger demand of last trains in metro based on external traffic data

The last train problem for metro is especially important because the last trains are the last chances for many passengers to travel by metro; otherwise, they have to choose other traffic modes like taxis or buses. Among the problems, the passenger demand is a vital input condition for the optimization of last train transfers. This study proposes a data-driven estimation method for the potential passenger demand of last trains. Through the geographic information, external traffic data including taxi and bus are first analyzed separately to match the origin–destination passenger flow during the last train period. A solving solution for taxi and bus is then developed to estimate the potential passenger flow for all the transfer directions of the target stations. Combining the estimated potential passenger flow and the actual passenger flow obtained by metro smart card data, the total potential passenger demand of last trains is obtained. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated using a real-world metro network. This research can provide important guidance and act as a technical reference for the metro operations on when to optimize the last train transfers.

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