论文信息 - A Summary of Ceiling Height and Total Sky Cover Short-Term Statistical Forecasts in the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP)

A Summary of Ceiling Height and Total Sky Cover Short-Term Statistical Forecasts in the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP)

Short-term statistical forecast LAMP guidance focusing on aviation related meteorological variables is currently being redeveloped by the National Weather Service’s Meteorological Development Laboratory (Ghirardelli 2005). The new LAMP system will run every hour, with hourly forecasts generated out to the 25-h projection. The LAMP guidance serves as an update to the Global Forecast System (GFS) Model Output Statistics (MOS) guidance. LAMP guidance is derived by the same basic technique used to develop MOS (Glahn and Lowry 1972). LAMP regression equations are developed to predict the probabilities of eight ceiling height (CIG) and five total sky cover (CLD) categories. Potential predictors for these equations include the GFS MOS probability forecasts, the most current METAR observations, and advection model variables. Finally, a post processing procedure is used to generate a LAMP best category forecast for CIG and CLD. The LAMP guidance is currently being generated for the 0900 UTC start time, and will cover approximately 1500 sites over the contiguous United States (CONUS), Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico.

Mitchell Weiss

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