A Polytomous Item Response Theory Model for Measuring Near-Miss Appraisal as a Psychological Trait

Near-miss experiences have been identified as a contributing factor in responses to risk of disaster events. Researchers have found that specific characteristics of a near-miss event could lead individuals to interpret the risk as either “vulnerable” or “resilient.” Moreover, these interpretations can lead to quite different decisions regarding future protective behavior. We developed the Near-Miss Appraisal Scale (NMAS) to assess an individual’s tendency to interpret near misses as vulnerable (or resilient). We developed an initial item pool of 21 items and recruited a sample of 298 respondents through Amazon Mechanical Turk. The final version of the NMAS is based on 10 of these items, following psychometric analysis for dimensionality, scale reliability, and item functioning. We establish discriminant validity of the NMAS by correlating the NMAS with scales of locus of control and risk taking, and predictive validity by using the NMAS to predict individual responses to a near-miss disaster scenario. The...

[1]  Ronald C Kessler,et al.  Mental illness and suicidality after Hurricane Katrina. , 2006, Bulletin of the World Health Organization.

[2]  C. Cooper Theories of organizational stress , 2000 .

[3]  Heather Rosoff,et al.  Heuristics and biases in cyber security dilemmas , 2013, Environment Systems and Decisions.

[4]  Dimitris Rizopoulos,et al.  ltm: An R Package for Latent Variable Modeling and Item Response Analysis , 2006 .

[5]  R. Lazarus Emotion and Adaptation , 1991 .

[6]  Rachel T. A. Croson,et al.  The impact of near-miss events on betting behavior: An examination of casino rapid roulette play , 2012, Judgment and Decision Making.

[7]  Dimitrios Rizopoulos ltm: An R Package for Latent Variable Modeling and Item Response Theory Analyses , 2006 .

[8]  R. Dillon,et al.  Interpreting Near-Miss Events , 2005 .

[9]  T. Kessler,et al.  The Cognitive Appraisal of Health Scale: development of psychometric evaluation. , 1998, Research in nursing & health.

[10]  Robert J. Meyer,et al.  Failing to learn from experience about catastrophes: The case of hurricane preparedness , 2012 .

[11]  K. Parkes Locus of control, cognitive appraisal, and coping in stressful episodes. , 1984, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[12]  E. Weber,et al.  A Domain-Specific Risk-Attitude Scale: Measuring Risk Perceptions and Risk Behaviors , 2002 .

[13]  I. Gianakos Predictors of Coping with Work Stress: The Influences of Sex, Gender Role, Social Desirability, and Locus of Control , 2002 .

[14]  S. Joseph,et al.  Incident-Related Stressors, Locus of Control, Coping, and Psychological Distress Among Firefighters in Northern Ireland , 2002, Journal of traumatic stress.

[15]  Vicki M. Bier,et al.  An Application of Copulas to Accident Precursor Analysis , 1998 .

[16]  S. Embretson,et al.  Item response theory for psychologists , 2000 .

[17]  Nigel E. Turner,et al.  The Effect of Common Variance and Structure Pattern on Random Data Eigenvalues: Implications for the Accuracy of Parallel Analysis , 1998 .

[18]  A. Bandura Self-efficacy: toward a unifying theory of behavioral change. , 1977, Psychology Review.

[19]  Nicola Paltrinieri,et al.  On the application of near accident data to risk analysis of major accidents , 2014, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[20]  Robin L Dillon,et al.  Why Near‐Miss Events Can Decrease an Individual's Protective Response to Hurricanes , 2011, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[21]  Robin L. Dillon,et al.  How Near-Misses Influence Decision Making Under Risk: A Missed Opportunity for Learning , 2008, Manag. Sci..

[22]  E. Soane,et al.  Personality and domain‐specific risk taking , 2005 .

[23]  H. Levenson Activism and Powerful Others: Distinctions within the Concept of Internal-External Control , 1974 .

[24]  S. Folkman,et al.  Stress, Appraisal, and Coping. New York, NY: Springer; , 1984 .

[25]  J. Rotter Social learning and clinical psychology , 2017 .

[26]  R. Philip Chalmers,et al.  mirt: A Multidimensional Item Response Theory Package for the R Environment , 2012 .

[27]  R. Henson,et al.  Use of Exploratory Factor Analysis in Published Research , 2006 .

[28]  G. Bonanno,et al.  Weighing the Costs of Disaster , 2010, Psychological science in the public interest : a journal of the American Psychological Society.

[29]  H. Jane Rogers,et al.  Differential Item Functioning , 2005 .

[30]  Robin L. Dillon,et al.  Airline Safety Improvement Through Experience with Near‐Misses: A Cautionary Tale , 2016, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[31]  W. Vogel,et al.  Medical students' cognitive appraisal of stressful life events as related to personality, physical well-being, and academic performance: a longitudinal study ☆ , 2003 .

[32]  J. Rotter Generalized expectancies for internal versus external control of reinforcement. , 1966, Psychological monographs.

[33]  K. Fromme,et al.  Outcome Expectancies and Risk-Taking Behavior , 2004, Cognitive Therapy and Research.

[34]  C. R. Anderson Locus of control, coping behaviors, and performance in a stress setting: a longitudinal study. , 1977, The Journal of applied psychology.

[35]  F. Samejima Estimation of latent ability using a response pattern of graded scores , 1968 .

[36]  E. Peacock,et al.  The stress appraisal measure (SAM): A multidimensional approach to cognitive appraisal , 1990 .

[37]  Robin L. Dillon,et al.  Evolving Risk Perceptions About Near-Miss Terrorist Events , 2014, Decis. Anal..

[38]  Gregory L. Stuart,et al.  Evaluation of a behavioral measure of risk taking: the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART). , 2002, Journal of experimental psychology. Applied.

[39]  Y. Benjamini,et al.  Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing , 1995 .

[40]  E. Weber,et al.  A Domain-Specific Risk-Taking (DOSPERT) Scale for Adult Populations , 2006, Judgment and Decision Making.

[41]  Derek Roger,et al.  The stress buffering effects of self-esteem , 1997 .

[42]  Robin L. Dillon,et al.  How Near-Miss Events Amplify or Attenuate Risky Decision Making , 2012, Manag. Sci..

[43]  Yoella Bereby-Meyer,et al.  “Leaving it to chance”—Passive risk taking in everyday life , 2012, Judgment and Decision Making.

[44]  H. Levenson 2 – DIFFERENTIATING AMONG INTERNALITY, POWERFUL OTHERS, AND CHANCE , 1981 .