Evaluation of CMIP5 Climate Models Using Historical Surface Air Temperatures in Central Asia

Using historical data compiled by the Climate Research Unit, spatial and temporal analysis, trend analysis, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, and Taylor diagram analysis were applied to test the ability of 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models to accurately simulate the annual mean surface air temperature in central Asia from the perspective of the average climate state and climate variability. Results show that each model can reasonably capture the spatial distribution characteristics of the surface air temperature in central Asia but cannot accurately describe the regional details of climate change impacts. Some of the studied models, including CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, and GISS-E2-H, could better simulate the high- and low-value centers and the contour distribution of the surface air temperature. Taylor diagram analysis showed that the root mean square errors of all models were less than 3, the standard deviations were between 8.36 and 13.45, and the spatial correlation coefficients were greater than 0.96. EOF analysis showed that the multi-model ensemble can accurately reproduce the surface air temperature characteristics in central Asia from 1901 to 2005, including the rising periods and the fluctuations of the north and south inversion phases. Overall, this study provides a valuable reference for future climate prediction studies in central Asia.

[1]  Xi Chen,et al.  Assessment of Precipitation Simulations in Central Asia by CMIP5 Climate Models , 2018, Water.

[2]  E. Berbery,et al.  Evaluation of CMIP5 retrospective simulations of temperature and precipitation in northeastern Argentina , 2018 .

[3]  Roméo Chamani,et al.  Projected trends of extreme rainfall events from CMIP5 models over Central Africa , 2018 .

[4]  Monika M. Lipińska,et al.  Global warming not so harmful for all plants - response of holomycotrophic orchid species for the future climate change , 2017, Scientific Reports.

[5]  T. Jiang,et al.  Impacts of 1.5 and 2 °C global warming on water availability and extreme hydrological events in Yiluo and Beijiang River catchments in China , 2017, Climatic Change.

[6]  R. Stoks,et al.  Energy storage and fecundity explain deviations from ecological stoichiometry predictions under global warming and size-selective predation. , 2016, The Journal of animal ecology.

[7]  J. Bai,et al.  Increasing Winter Precipitation over Arid Central Asia under Global Warming , 2016 .

[8]  M. Feng,et al.  Management adaptation of invertebrate fisheries to an extreme marine heat wave event at a global warming hot spot , 2016, Ecology and evolution.

[9]  E. Wood,et al.  Evaluation of historical and future simulations of precipitation and temperature in central Africa from CMIP5 climate models , 2016 .

[10]  Nigel H. Lovell,et al.  Towards Investigating Global Warming Impact on Human Health Using Derivatives of Photoplethysmogram Signals , 2015, International journal of environmental research and public health.

[11]  B. Anderson,et al.  Patterns of Precipitation Change and Climatological Uncertainty among CMIP5 Models, with a Focus on the Midlatitude Pacific Storm Track* , 2015 .

[12]  Zhongbo Yu,et al.  Assessing CMIP5 general circulation model simulations of precipitation and temperature over China , 2015 .

[13]  M. New,et al.  The impact of ENSO on Southern African rainfall in CMIP5 ocean atmosphere coupled climate models , 2015, Climate Dynamics.

[14]  Xuebin Zhang,et al.  Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in China by the CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles , 2014 .

[15]  Q. Duan,et al.  Assessment of CMIP5 climate models and projected temperature changes over Northern Eurasia , 2014 .

[16]  Gian-Kasper Plattner,et al.  IPCC Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis - Findings and Lessons Learned , 2014 .

[17]  S. Xie,et al.  Tropical Biases in CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble: The Excessive Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue and Double ITCZ Problems* , 2014 .

[18]  L. Ahuja,et al.  Global warming likely reduces crop yield and water availability of the dryland cropping systems in the U.S. Central Great Plains , 2013, Journal of Crop Science and Biotechnology.

[19]  A. Powell,et al.  Discrepancies of surface temperature trends in the CMIP5 simulations and observations on the global and regional scales , 2013 .

[20]  Zengyun Hu,et al.  Characterizing cross-scale chaotic behaviors of the runoff time series in an inland river of Central Asia , 2013 .

[21]  P. Webster,et al.  Evaluation of short‐term climate change prediction in multi‐model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts , 2012 .

[22]  R. Kwok,et al.  Recent Changes of Arctic Multiyear Sea Ice Coverage and the Likely Causes , 2012 .

[23]  M. Dubey,et al.  Observed and model simulated 20th century Arctic temperature variability: Canadian Earth System Model CanESM2 , 2011 .

[24]  Liao Yang,et al.  Changes in the area of inland lakes in arid regions of central Asia during the past 30 years , 2011, Environmental monitoring and assessment.

[25]  A. Adeloye.  Global Warming Impact: Flood Events, Wet-Dry Conditions and Changing Scene in World Food Security , 2010 .

[26]  D. Nowak.  Urban biodiversity and climate change , 2010 .

[27]  F. Giorgi,et al.  Upgrades to the reliability ensemble averaging method for producing probabilistic climate-change projections , 2010 .

[28]  G. Henebry,et al.  Climate and environmental change in arid Central Asia: impacts, vulnerability, and adaptations. , 2009 .

[29]  John J Wassel.  Public health preparedness for the impact of global warming on human health. , 2009, American journal of disaster medicine.

[30]  T. Kojiri,et al.  Assessment of global warming impacts on water resources and ecology of a river basin in Japan , 2008 .

[31]  Weidong Guo,et al.  Calibrating and Evaluating Reanalysis Surface Temperature Error by Topographic Correction , 2008 .

[32]  M. Sebastià,et al.  Plant guilds drive biomass response to global warming and water availability in subalpine grassland , 2006 .

[33]  Tianjun Zhou,et al.  Twentieth-Century Surface Air Temperature over China and the Globe Simulated by Coupled Climate Models , 2006 .

[34]  T. D. Mitchell,et al.  An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high‐resolution grids , 2005 .

[35]  K. Taylor.  Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram , 2001 .

[36]  Xi Chen,et al.  Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Dry and Wet Conditions in Central Asia , 2018 .

[37]  Sumbul Khan,et al.  Effect of Air Conditioning on Global Warming and Human Health , 2018 .

[38]  Chang‐Hoi Ho,et al.  Characteristics of East Asian Cold Surges in the CMIP5 Climate Models , 2017 .

[39]  Gao Guo-we.  Global Warming and Food Security in China , 2014 .

[40]  Weiguang Wang,et al.  Multi-model ensemble projections in temperature and precipitation extremes of the Tibetan Plateau in the 21st century , 2012 .