Risk and rationality: the influence of decision domain and perceived outcome control on managers' high‐risk decisions

The issue of when managers will undertake different forms and amounts of risk in their new business creation decisions is still not fully understood. To address one facet of this issue, this paper advances the proposition that decision domain and perceived outcome control interact to impact managers' new-product introduction decisions. Employing a causal method, a nested experimental design and indicators of risk's probability of loss and magnitude of loss elements, the study's results demonstrate that the manager's level of perceived outcome control combines with decision domain to determine subsequent levels of risk taking that are specific to each element of risk. Implications for theory, including prospect theory, and practice, especially firms wanting to pursue today's high-risk new-economy based initiatives, are discussed. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[1]  Timothy B. Palmer,et al.  Decoupling risk taking from income stream uncertainty: a holistic model of risk , 1999 .

[2]  Howard Thomas,et al.  Dynamic and risk measurement perspectives on bowman's risk‐return paradox for strategic management: An empirical study , 1986 .

[3]  Peter R. Dickson,et al.  Missing the Boat and Sinking the Boat: A Conceptual Model of Entrepreneurial Risk: , 1986 .

[4]  A. Tversky,et al.  Prospect theory: analysis of decision under risk , 1979 .

[5]  Philip Bromiley,et al.  Risk and Return in Organizational Decision Making , 1999 .

[6]  Jitendra V. Singh Performance, Slack, and Risk Taking in Organizational Decision Making , 1986 .

[7]  Jeffrey J. Reuer,et al.  MEASURING ORGANIZATIONAL DOWNSIDE RISK , 1996 .

[8]  John C. Butler,et al.  Measures of Perceived Risk , 1999 .

[9]  Kent D. Miller,et al.  Corporate Risk-Return Relations: Returns Variability Versus Downside Risk , 1996 .

[10]  O. Walker,et al.  Effects of organizational and decision-maker factors on new product risk taking , 1999 .

[11]  A. Tversky,et al.  Prospect Theory : An Analysis of Decision under Risk Author ( s ) : , 2007 .

[12]  Jeffrey G. Covin,et al.  Entrepreneurial strategy making and firm performance: tests of contingency and configurational models , 1997 .

[13]  R. Thaler,et al.  Gambling with the house money and trying to break even: the effects of prior outcomes on risky choice , 1990 .

[14]  H. Thomas,et al.  Attitudes Toward Risk and The Risk–Return Paradox: Prospect Theory Explanations , 1988 .

[15]  T. Cook,et al.  Quasi-experimentation: Design & analysis issues for field settings , 1979 .

[16]  J. Frank Yates,et al.  The risk construct. , 1992 .

[17]  Peter R. Dickson,et al.  How Believing in Ourselves Increases Risk Taking: Perceived Self‐Efficacy and Opportunity Recognition , 1994 .

[18]  J. March,et al.  Variable risk preferences and the focus of attention , 1992 .

[19]  H. Thomas,et al.  Risk-attitudes and the risk return paradox : prospect theory explanations , 1985 .

[20]  Lola L. Lopes,et al.  [Advances in Experimental Social Psychology] Advances in Experimental Social Psychology Volume 20 Volume 20 || Between Hope and Fear: The Psychology of Risk , 1987 .

[21]  M. Jegers Prospect Theory and The Risk-Return Relation: Some Belgian Evidence , 1991 .

[22]  A. Tversky,et al.  The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences , 1985, Cognitive Psychology.

[23]  John W. Mullins,et al.  Perceived risks and choices in entrepreneurs' new venture decisions , 2000 .

[24]  A. Tversky,et al.  Preference and belief: Ambiguity and competence in choice under uncertainty , 1991 .

[25]  L. W. Littig Effects of Skill and Chance Orientations on Probability Preferences , 1962 .

[26]  J. March,et al.  Managerial perspectives on risk and risk taking , 1987 .

[27]  John R. Hauser,et al.  Premarket Forecasting of Really-New Products , 1996 .

[28]  K. Eisenhardt,et al.  PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT: PAST RESEARCH, PRESENT FINDINGS, AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS , 1995 .

[29]  Kent D. Miller,et al.  Strategic Risk and Corporate Performance: an Analysis of Alternative Risk Measures , 1990 .

[30]  Mark P. Sharfman,et al.  Does Decision Process Matter? A Study Of Strategic Decision-making Effectiveness , 1996 .