Thermodynamic and Dynamic Mechanisms for Large-Scale Changes in the Hydrological Cycle in Response to Global Warming*

Abstract The mechanisms of changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle projected by 15 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 and used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report are analyzed by computing differences between 2046 and 2065 and 1961 and 2000. The contributions to changes in precipitation minus evaporation, P − E, caused thermodynamically by changes in specific humidity, dynamically by changes in circulation, and by changes in moisture transports by transient eddies are evaluated. The thermodynamic and dynamic contributions are further separated into advective and divergent components. The nonthermodynamic contributions are then related to changes in the mean and transient circulation. The projected change in P − E involves an intensification of the existing pattern of P − E with wet areas [the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and mid- to high latitudes] getting wetter and arid and semiarid regions of the subtropics g...

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