The need for large‐scale distribution data to estimate regional changes in species richness under future climate change

Species distribution models built with geographically restricted data often fail to capture the full range of conditions experienced by species across their entire distribution area. Using such models to predict distribution shifts under future environmental change may, therefore, produce biased projections. However, restricted‐scale models have the potential to include a larger sample of taxa for which distribution data are available and to provide finer‐resolution projections that are better applied to conservation planning than the forecasts of broad‐scale models. We examine the circumstances under which the projected shifts in species richness patterns derived from restricted‐scale and broad‐scale models are most likely to be similar.

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