A Bayesian Note on Reliability Growth During a Development Testing Program

The problem of estimating the reliability of a system which is undergoing development testing is considered from a Bayesian standpoint. Formally, m sets of binomial trials are performed under conditions which lead to an ordering, ¿1 < ¿2 < ... < ¿m, of the binomial parameters. The parameter of interest is ¿m, the final underlying reliability of the system. The marginal posterior pdf for ¿m is easily obtained when uniform prior pdf's are assumed. The method is illustrated.