Mechanisms influencing changes in lake area in Alaskan boreal forest

During the past ∼50 years, the number and area of lakes have declined in several regions in boreal forests. However, there has been substantial finer‐scale heterogeneity; some lakes decreased in area, some showed no trend, and others increased. The objective of this study was to identify the primary mechanisms underlying heterogeneous trends in closed‐basin lake area. Eight lake characteristics (δ18O, electrical conductivity, surface : volume index, bank slope, floating mat width, peat depth, thaw depth at shoreline, and thaw depth at the forest boundary) were compared for 15 lake pairs in Alaskan boreal forest where one lake had decreased in area since ∼1950, and the other had not. Mean differences in characteristics between paired lakes were used to identify the most likely of nine mechanistic scenarios that combined three potential mechanisms for decreasing lake area (talik drainage, surface water evaporation, and terrestrialization) with three potential mechanisms for nondecreasing lake area (subpermafrost groundwater recharge through an open talik, stable permafrost, and thermokarst). A priori expectations of the direction of mean differences between decreasing and nondecreasing paired lakes were generated for each scenario. Decreasing lakes had significantly greater electrical conductivity, greater surface : volume indices, shallower bank slopes, wider floating mats, greater peat depths, and shallower thaw depths at the forest boundary. These results indicated that the most likely scenario was terrestrialization as the mechanism for lake area reduction combined with thermokarst as the mechanism for nondecreasing lake area. Terrestrialization and thermokarst may have been enhanced by recent warming which has both accelerated permafrost thawing and lengthened the growing season, thereby increasing plant growth, floating mat encroachment, transpiration rates, and the accumulation of organic matter in lake basins. The transition to peatlands associated with terrestrialization may provide a transient increase in carbon storage enhancing the role of northern ecosystems as major stores of global carbon.

[1]  Permalink,et al.  Arctic and boreal ecosystems of western North America as components of the climate system , 2000, Global change biology.

[2]  M. Jewell,et al.  Studies on Northern Michigan Bog Lakes , 1929 .

[3]  F. C. Gates.  The bogs of northern lower Michigan. , 1942 .

[4]  D. Hopkins,et al.  Thaw Lakes and Thaw Sinks in the Imuruk Lake Area, Seward Peninsula, Alaska , 1949, The Journal of Geology.

[5]  P. Dansereau,et al.  ECOLOGICAL STUDY OF THE PEAT BOGS OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA: I. STRUCTURE AND EVOLUTION OF VEGETATION , 1952 .

[6]  K. Lems.  ECOLOGICAL STUDY OF THE PEAT BOGS OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA: III. NOTES ON THE BEHAVIOR OF CHAMAEDAPHNE CALYCULATA , 1956 .

[7]  M. C. Brewer.  Some results of geothermal investigations of permafrost in northern Alaska , 1958 .

[8]  H. Craig,et al.  Standard for Reporting Concentrations of Deuterium and Oxygen-18 in Natural Waters , 1961, Science.

[9]  Lester V. Manderscheid.  Significance Levels—0.05, 0.01, or? , 1965 .

[10]  N. T. Coleman.  Isotopes and Radiation in Soil-Plant Nutrition Studies , 1967 .

[11]  Cluade E. Boyd,et al.  Factors Influencing Shoot Production and Mineral Nutrient Levels in Typha Latifolia , 1970 .

[12]  Bryan R. Payne,et al.  Water balance of Lake Chala and its relation to groundwater from tritium and stable isotope data , 1970 .

[13]  R. West,et al.  Studies in the Vegetational History of the British Isles , 1971 .

[14]  R. S. Clymo,et al.  THE GROWTH OF SPHAGNUM: SOME EFFECTS OF ENVIRONMENT , 1973 .

[15]  John J. Gaudet,et al.  Uptake, accumulation, and loss of nutrients by papyrus in tropical swamps. , 1977 .

[16]  P. Thompson,et al.  Oxygen and hydrogen isotopic ratios in plant cellulose. , 1977, Science.

[17]  M. J. Deniro,et al.  Relationship Between the Oxygen Isotope Ratios of Terrestrial Plant Cellulose, Carbon Dioxide, and Water , 1979, Science.

[18]  T. J. Dwyer,et al.  Marsh nesting by mallards , 1979 .

[19]  S. Holm.  A Simple Sequentially Rejective Multiple Test Procedure , 1979 .

[20]  James M. Brown,et al.  Evaporation from a sphagnum moss surface , 1980 .

[21]  W. D. Billings,et al.  VEGETATIONAL CHANGE AND ICE-WEDGE POLYGONS THROUGH THE THAW-LAKE CYCLE IN ARCTIC ALASKA , 1980 .

[22]  S. Carpenter.  ENRICHMENT OF LAKE WINGRA, WISCONSIN, BY SUBMERSED MACROPHYTE DECAY' , 1980 .

[23]  T. Kratz,et al.  Internal Factors Controlling Peatland‐Lake Ecosystem Development , 1986 .

[24]  M. Woo.  Permafrost hydrology in North America 1 , 1986 .

[25]  S. H. Bouffard,et al.  Overwater Nesting by Ducks: A Review and Management Implications , 1987 .

[26]  W. Koerselman,et al.  Evapotranspiration from fens in relation to Penman's potential free water evaporation (Eo) and pan evaporation , 1988 .

[27]  J. Wiens.  Spatial Scaling in Ecology , 1989 .

[28]  G. Casella,et al.  Statistical Inference , 2003, Encyclopedia of Social Network Analysis and Mining.

[29]  D. Schindler,et al.  Effects of Climatic Warming on Lakes of the Central Boreal Forest , 1990, Science.

[30]  W. Ahrens,et al.  Use of the Arcsine and Square Root Transformations for Subjectively Determined Percentage Data , 1990, Weed Science.

[31]  E. Gorham.  Northern Peatlands: Role in the Carbon Cycle and Probable Responses to Climatic Warming. , 1991, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[32]  Carol A. Johnston,et al.  Sediment and nutrient retention by freshwater wetlands: effects on surface water quality , 1991 .

[33]  J. Keeley,et al.  The relationship between stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios of water in astomatal plants , 1991 .

[34]  James R. Ehleringer,et al.  Streamside trees that do not use stream water , 1991, Nature.

[35]  P. Lafleur,et al.  Northern fens: methane flux and climatic change , 1992 .

[36]  J. A. Heginbottom,et al.  Permafrost and ground ice conditions of northwestern Canada , 1992 .

[37]  J. Buring,et al.  Observational Evidence , 1993, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences.

[38]  R. Fantechi.  Effects Of Climate Change , 1993 .

[39]  T. Arnold,et al.  Relative success of overwater and upland mallard nests in southwestern Manitoba , 1993 .

[40]  H. Vasander,et al.  Vegetation changes after drainage and fertilization in pine mires , 1993 .

[41]  D. Vitt,et al.  The Bog Landforms of Continental Western Canada in Relation to Climate and Permafrost Patterns , 1994, Arctic and Alpine Research.

[42]  D. Vitt.  Responses of northern peatlands to climate change--effects on bryophytes (Papers to commemorate the late Dr.Sinske Hattori′s contributions-2-) , 1994 .

[43]  D. Vitt,et al.  Wetland development at Elk Island National Park, Alberta, Canada , 1994 .

[44]  J. Laine,et al.  Long-Term Effects of Water Level Drawdown on the Vegetation of Drained Pine Mires in Southern Finland , 1995 .

[45]  F. Hu,et al.  Postglacial development of a Maine bog and paleoenvironmental implications , 1995 .

[46]  David K. Swanson,et al.  Susceptibility of Permafrost Soils to Deep Thaw after Forest Fires in Interior Alaska, U.S.A., and Some Ecologic Implications , 1996 .

[47]  P. Martikainen,et al.  Effect of water-level drawdown on global climatic warming: northern peatlands , 1996 .

[48]  L. Klinger.  The Myth of the Classic Hydrosere Model of Bog Succession , 1996, Arctic and Alpine Research.

[49]  J. Gat.  OXYGEN AND HYDROGEN ISOTOPES IN THE HYDROLOGIC CYCLE , 1996 .

[50]  C. D. Keeling,et al.  Increased activity of northern vegetation inferred from atmospheric CO2 measurements , 1996, Nature.

[51]  Philip Marsh,et al.  EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE FRESHWATERS OF ARCTIC AND SUBARCTIC NORTH AMERICA , 1997 .

[52]  L. Hinzman,et al.  Numeric Simulation of Thermokarst Formation During Disturbance , 1997 .

[53]  B. Warner,et al.  Post-glacial development of a kettle-hole peatland in southern Ontario , 1997 .

[54]  C. Tucker,et al.  Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991 , 1997, Nature.

[55]  E. S. Melnikov,et al.  Circum-Arctic map of permafrost and ground-ice conditions , 1997 .

[56]  Jennifer Y. King,et al.  Methane emission and transport by arctic sedges in Alaska: Results of a vegetation removal experiment , 1998 .

[57]  J. Turunen,et al.  The role of fire in the carbon dynamics of a mire, eastern Finland , 1999 .

[58]  F. Nelson,et al.  Variability of active - layer thickness at multiple spatial scales , 1999 .

[59]  S. Running,et al.  Simulating the effects of climate change on the carbon balance of North American high‐latitude forests , 2000, Global change biology.

[60]  W. Oechel,et al.  Acclimation of ecosystem CO2 exchange in the Alaskan Arctic in response to decadal climate warming , 2000, Nature.

[61]  F. Nelson,et al.  The circumpolar active layer monitoring (calm) program: Research designs and initial results , 2000 .

[62]  W. Oechel,et al.  Observational Evidence of Recent Change in the Northern High-Latitude Environment , 2000 .

[63]  C. Racine,et al.  Observations of Thermokarst and Its Impact on Boreal Forests in Alaska, U.S.A. , 2000 .

[64]  Yuri Shur,et al.  Observations of Thermokarst and Its Impact on Boreal Forests in Alaska, U.S.A. , 2000 .

[65]  Henry F. Diaz,et al.  ENSO variability, teleconnections and climate changeThis article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. , 2001 .

[66]  L. Hinzman,et al.  The Hydrologic Cycle and its Role in Arcticand Global Environmental Change:A Rationale and Strategy for Synthesis Study , 2001 .

[67]  Jeffrey P. Chanton,et al.  Greenhouse carbon balance of wetlands: methane emission versus carbon sequestration , 2001 .

[68]  I. C. Prentice,et al.  Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the Twentieth Century: Analyses of CO2, climate and land use effects with four process‐based ecosystem models , 2001 .

[69]  M. Torre Jorgenson,et al.  Permafrost Degradation and Ecological Changes Associated with a WarmingClimate in Central Alaska , 2001 .

[70]  J. Chanton,et al.  Greenhouse carbon balance of wetlands: methane emission versus carbon sequestration: Greenhouse carbon balance of wetlands , 2001 .

[71]  N. I. Shiklomanov,et al.  Variability of seasonal thaw depth in permafrost regions: a stochastic modeling approach , 2002 .

[72]  C. Burn,et al.  Tundra lakes and permafrost, Richards Island, western Arctic coast, Canada , 2002 .

[73]  J. Gibson,et al.  Regional water balance trends and evaporation‐transpiration partitioning from a stable isotope survey of lakes in northern Canada , 2002 .

[74]  J. Waddington,et al.  Cutover peatlands: A persistent source of atmospheric CO2 , 2002 .

[75]  R. Korhonen,et al.  Carbon balance and radiative forcing of Finnish peatlands 1900–2100 – the impact of forestry drainage , 2002 .

[76]  M. Cannell,et al.  Carbon balance of afforested peatland in Scotland , 2003 .

[77]  Kenji Yoshikawa,et al.  Shrinking thermokarst ponds and groundwater dynamics in discontinuous permafrost near council, Alaska , 2003 .

[78]  Dennis R. Keeney,et al.  Nitrogen and phosphorus release from decaying water milfoil , 1973, Hydrobiologia.

[79]  Sassan Saatchi,et al.  Trends in high northern latitude soil freeze and thaw cycles from 1988 to 2002 , 2004 .

[80]  F. Chapin,et al.  Evidence and Implications of Recent Climate Change in Northern Alaska and Other Arctic Regions , 2004 .

[81]  Arctic Monitoring,et al.  Impacts of a warming Arctic : Arctic Climate Impact Assessment , 2004 .

[82]  Marco Caccianiga,et al.  Accelerated thawing of subarctic peatland permafrost over the last 50 years , 2004 .

[83]  T. Osterkamp.  The recent warming of permafrost in Alaska , 2005 .

[84]  M. Jorgenson,et al.  Response of boreal ecosystems to varying modes of permafrost degradation , 2005 .

[85]  L. D. Hinzman,et al.  Disappearing Arctic Lakes , 2005, Science.

[86]  R. Dial,et al.  Wetland drying and succession across the Kenai Peninsula Lowlands, south-central Alaska , 2005 .

[87]  David L. Verbyla,et al.  Shrinking ponds in subarctic Alaska based on 1950–2002 remotely sensed images , 2006 .

[88]  Michael W. Smith,et al.  Development of thermokarst lakes during the holocene at sites near Mayo, Yukon territory , 2006 .

[89]  John S. Kimball,et al.  Importance of recent shifts in soil thermal dynamics on growing season length, productivity, and carbon sequestration in terrestrial high‐latitude ecosystems , 2006 .

[90]  S. Burns,et al.  Late Holocene moisture balance variability in the southwest Yukon Territory, Canada , 2007 .

[91]  Maurice G. Cox,et al.  The area under a curve specified by measured values , 2007 .

[92]  M. Torre Jorgenson,et al.  Evolution of lakes and basins in northern Alaska and discussion of the thaw lake cycle , 2007 .

[93]  John P. Smol,et al.  Crossing the final ecological threshold in high Arctic ponds , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[94]  C. M. Cooper,et al.  Plant senescence: a mechanism for nutrient release in temperate agricultural wetlands. , 2007, Environmental pollution.

[95]  R. Davidson‐Arnott,et al.  CANADIAN LANDFORM EXAMPLES - 37 , 2008 .

[96]  J. Overpeck,et al.  Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling , 2009, Science.

[97]  Benjamin M. Jones,et al.  Geography of Alaska Lake Districts: Identification, Description, and Analysis of Lake-Rich Regions of a Diverse and Dynamic State , 2009 .

[98]  J. Price.  CANADIAN LANDFORM EXAMPLES — 29 , 2009 .

[99]  F. Hu,et al.  An oxygen-isotope record of Holocene climate change in the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska , 2010 .

[100]  B. Wolfe,et al.  Characterizing the role of hydrological processes on lake water balances in the Old Crow Flats, Yukon Territory, Canada, using water isotope tracers. , 2010 .

[101]  A. Korhola.  Mire induction, ecosystem dynamics and lateral extension on raised bogs in the southern coastal area of Finland , 2013 .