At the threshold: emerging opportunities for expanding commercial and governmental space operations in the new century - The 1997 KRAFT

Abstract We stand at the threshold of a new era in space operations in which a host of potentially profound changes will occur in space systems concepts and technologies. Many of the space systems in use today were originally created in the mid- to late-1960s, based on technologies either already existing or then under development. These concepts—including satellites, launchers and piloted systems—have served well for government and commercial missions during the decades since that era. They will continue to serve—and serve well—as we enter the first decade of the next century. However, in this era of restraint in government spending on civilian space and dramatic growth in investments in existing space commercial ventures, new, breakthrough systems concepts that drive down costs are critically needed. Fortunately these new concepts appear to be at hand. Building on the research foundation of the past 20 years, an array of new technologies are emerging which may make possible highly innovative advanced systems concepts. These technologies include long-lived high-efficiency chemical propulsion, affordable megawatt-class space power systems, advanced electromagnetic systems, breakthrough materials, “brilliant” space machines, robust artificial intelligences onboard and on the ground, low-cost utilization of local resources, and others. Moreover, many of these technologies appear common to both new space industries and very affordable future government missions. Forerunners of this new era can be seen today in the systems of large telecommunications satellite constellations such as the Iridium venture and in the technologies of the reusable launch vehicle program. Driving down the cost of space access will be the linchpin for this prospective future. In addition, during the coming decade, a wide range of civilian government space investments will likely be focused on vitally-needed research and development. Our choices now are exceptionally important and must be made wisely. We stand at the threshold. Across a broad technological frontier, diverse opportunities are emerging that might well make possible the creation of revolutionary systems concepts and a dramatic expansion of new space industries, while also enabling bold, but affordable missions of human exploration beyond Earth orbit.