Energy performance of dwelling stock in Iceland: System dynamics approach

Abstract Despite the significant energy use in dwellings, buildings have the highest energy savings potential among all sectors. One of the main analytical challenges is how to capture the impact from inertia driven by the current dwelling stock. Thus, a dwelling stock model was established to study the impacts of physical processes (e.g., aging), as well as the effect of social processes (e.g., household energy conservation behaviors) on energy demand for space heating in the Icelandic dwelling stock. The model is initialized in the year 2000, and then calibrated with datasets on the Icelandic dwelling stock and hot water consumption for residential space heating. Analysis of the base scenario confirms that the improvement in the average energy intensity of total dwelling stock with regular turnover of the dwelling stock is insignificant and gradual, which relates to the inertia of the existing stock. The comparison of the results from two policy scenarios with the base case, illustrates that the aggressive demolition is more effective compared to the aggressive construction in reducing the total energy demand for space heating. The results of this analysis can support policy makers by providing insights regarding the potential impact of building energy-efficiency policies ensuring an effective policy package.

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