Global drivers of human pathogen richness and prevalence

The differences in the richness and prevalence of human pathogens among different geographical locations have ramifying consequences for societies and individuals. The relative contributions of different factors to these patterns, however, have not been fully resolved. We conduct a global analysis of the relative influence of climate, alternative host diversity and spending on disease prevention on modern patterns in the richness and prevalence of human pathogens. Pathogen richness (number of kinds) is largely explained by the number of birds and mammal species in a region. The most diverse countries with respect to birds and mammals are also the most diverse with respect to pathogens. Importantly, for human health, the prevalence of key human pathogens (number of cases) is strongly influenced by disease control efforts. As a consequence, even where disease richness is high, we might still control prevalence, particularly if we spend money in those regions where current spending is low, prevalence is high and populations are large.

[1]  S. Lazic,et al.  Model based Inference in the Life Sciences: a Primer on Evidence , 2011 .

[2]  W. Rice,et al.  The evolution of sex-specific grandparental harm , 2010, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[3]  T. Davies,et al.  Cross-Species Pathogen Transmission and Disease Emergence in Primates , 2009, EcoHealth.

[4]  Shan Zhu.  Psychosis may be associated with toxoplasmosis. , 2009, Medical hypotheses.

[5]  J. Semenza,et al.  Climate change and infectious diseases in Europe. , 2009, The Lancet. Infectious diseases.

[6]  R. Ostfeld,et al.  Climate change and the distribution and intensity of infectious diseases. , 2009, Ecology.

[7]  K. Lafferty.  Calling for an ecological approach to studying climate change and infectious diseases. , 2009, Ecology.

[8]  Kevin D. Lafferty,et al.  The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases , 2009 .

[9]  R. Thornhill,et al.  Parasites, democratization, and the liberalization of values across contemporary countries , 2009, Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society.

[10]  N. Stenseth,et al.  Expected future plague levels in a wildlife host under different scenarios of climate change , 2009 .

[11]  D. Graham,et al.  The Peopling of the Pacific from a Bacterial Perspective , 2009, Science.

[12]  Walter Jetz,et al.  Global associations between terrestrial producer and vertebrate consumer diversity , 2009, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[13]  Robert A. Barton,et al.  Parasite resistance and the adaptive significance of sleep , 2009, BMC Evolutionary Biology.

[14]  C. Nunn,et al.  Stepwise Model Fitting and Statistical Inference: Turning Noise into Signal Pollution , 2008, The American Naturalist.

[15]  Randy Thornhill,et al.  Assortative sociality, limited dispersal, infectious disease and the genesis of the global pattern of religion diversity , 2008, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[16]  P. J. Hooper,et al.  The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis: Health Impact after 8 Years , 2008, PLoS neglected tropical diseases.

[17]  M. Phillips.  Dengue Reborn: Widespread Resurgence of a Resilient Vector , 2008, Environmental health perspectives.

[18]  R. Thornhill,et al.  A parasite‐driven wedge: infectious diseases may explain language and other biodiversity , 2008 .

[19]  Damian R. Murray,et al.  Pathogen prevalence predicts human cross-cultural variability in individualism/collectivism , 2008, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[20]  L. F. Chaves,et al.  Malaria transmission pattern resilience to climatic variability is mediated by insecticide-treated nets , 2008, Malaria Journal.

[21]  Andrew J. McMichael,et al.  Climate change and infectious diseases , 2008, The Social Ecology of Infectious Diseases.

[22]  K. Reinhard,et al.  Parasites as probes for prehistoric human migrations? , 2008, Trends in parasitology.

[23]  Kate E. Jones,et al.  Global trends in emerging infectious diseases , 2008, Nature.

[24]  K. Senior.  Climate change and infectious disease: a dangerous liaison? , 2008, The Lancet. Infectious diseases.

[25]  Maosheng Zhao,et al.  Development of a global evapotranspiration algorithm based on MODIS and global meteorology data , 2007 .

[26]  J. Guégan,et al.  Globalization of human infectious disease. , 2007, Ecology.

[27]  Kate E. Jones,et al.  Parasite species richness in carnivores: effects of host body mass, latitude, geographical range and population density , 2007 .

[28]  Nathan D. Wolfe,et al.  Origins of major human infectious diseases , 2007, Nature.

[29]  R. G. Davies,et al.  Topography, energy and the global distribution of bird species richness , 2007, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[30]  Robert P Freckleton,et al.  Why do we still use stepwise modelling in ecology and behaviour? , 2006, The Journal of animal ecology.

[31]  J. Guégan,et al.  Food Webs and Disease: Is Pathogen Diversity Limited by Vector Diversity? , 2006, EcoHealth.

[32]  L. F. Chaves,et al.  Malaria resurgence in the East African highlands: temperature trends revisited. , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[33]  S. Hales,et al.  Climate change and human health: present and future risks , 2006, The Lancet.

[34]  William C Hahn,et al.  Oncogenic Transformation by Inhibitor-Sensitive and -Resistant EGFR Mutants , 2005, PLoS medicine.

[35]  S. Hales,et al.  NON-STATIONARY INFLUENCE OF EL NI??O ON THE SYNCHRONOUS DENGUE EPIDEMICS IN THAILAND , 2005 .

[36]  K. Lafferty,et al.  Host diversity begets parasite diversity: bird final hosts and trematodes in snail intermediate hosts , 2005, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[37]  C. Nunn,et al.  Latitudinal gradients of parasite species richness in primates , 2005 .

[38]  Kate E. Jones,et al.  Parasites and the Evolutionary Diversification of Primate Clades , 2004, The American Naturalist.

[39]  A. Fauci,et al.  The challenge of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases , 2004, Nature.

[40]  James H. Brown,et al.  Toward a metabolic theory of ecology , 2004 .

[41]  B. A. Hawkins,et al.  Does plant richness influence animal richness?: the mammals of Catalonia (NE Spain) , 2004 .

[42]  M. Hochberg,et al.  Ecology Drives the Worldwide Distribution of Human Diseases , 2004, PLoS biology.

[43]  Andrew J Tatem,et al.  The global distribution and population at risk of malaria: past, present, and future. , 2004, The Lancet. Infectious diseases.

[44]  Richard Field,et al.  ENERGY, WATER, AND BROAD‐SCALE GEOGRAPHIC PATTERNS OF SPECIES RICHNESS , 2003 .

[45]  R. H. Kushler,et al.  Statistical Computing: An Introduction to Data Analysis Using S-PLUS , 2003, Technometrics.

[46]  Kate E. Jones,et al.  Comparative Tests of Parasite Species Richness in Primates , 2003, The American Naturalist.

[47]  J. Lucientes,et al.  CORRELATES OF HELMINTH COMMUNITY IN THE RED-LEGGED PARTRIDGE (ALECTORIS RUFA L.) IN SPAIN , 2003, The Journal of parasitology.

[48]  J. Diniz‐Filho,et al.  Spatial autocorrelation and red herrings in geographical ecology , 2003 .

[49]  Ciro A. de Quadros,et al.  History and prospects for viral disease eradication , 2002, Medical Microbiology and Immunology.

[50]  M. Hochberg,et al.  DISEASE DIVERSITY AND HUMAN FERTILITY , 2001, Evolution; international journal of organic evolution.

[51]  P Reiter,et al.  Climate change and mosquito-borne disease. , 2001, Environmental health perspectives.

[52]  Rex B. Kline,et al.  Principles and Practice of Structural Equation Modeling , 1998 .

[53]  M. Rosenzweig,et al.  Species Diversity and Latitudes: Listening to Area's Signal , 1997 .

[54]  R. O'Neill,et al.  The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital , 1997, Nature.

[55]  J. Lederberg.  The Challenge of Emerging and Re-Emerging Infections , 1995 .

[56]  P. Kaye.  Infectious diseases of humans: Dynamics and control , 1993 .

[57]  K. Rohde.  Latitudinal gradients in species diversity: the search for the primary cause , 1992 .

[58]  M. Rosenzweig.  Species Diversity Gradients: We Know More and Less Than We Thought , 1992 .

[59]  W. Denevan.  The Pristine Myth: The Landscape of the Americas in 1492 , 1992 .

[60]  E. Pianka.  Latitudinal gradients in species diversity , 1989 .

[61]  David H. Wright,et al.  Species-energy theory: an extension of species-area theory , 1983 .

[62]  R. May,et al.  Population biology of infectious diseases: Part II , 1979, Nature.

[63]  H. G. Baker,et al.  Evolution in the Tropics , 1970 .

[64]  D. Janzen.  Herbivores and the Number of Tree Species in Tropical Forests , 1970, The American Naturalist.

[65]  R. Macarthur,et al.  The Theory of Island Biogeography , 1969 .

[66]  M. Rosenzweig.  Net Primary Productivity of Terrestrial Communities: Prediction from Climatological Data , 1968, The American Naturalist.

[67]  K. Stowman.  World health statistics. , 1949, The Milbank Memorial Fund quarterly.

[68]  M. Schaller,et al.  Parasites, minds and cultures , 2009 .

[69]  E. A. Goulda,et al.  Impact of climate change and other factors on emerging arbovirus diseases , 2008 .

[70]  J. Gómez‐Marín,et al.  Frequency of specific anti-Toxoplasma gondii IgM, IgA and IgE in colombian patients with acute and chronic ocular toxoplasmosis. , 2000, Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz.

[71]  R. May,et al.  Population Biology of Infectious Diseases , 1982, Dahlem Workshop Reports.

[72]  J. Connell.  On the role of the natural enemies in preventing competitive exclusion in some marine animals and in rain forest trees , 1971 .