Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasts in Multi-Objective Water Resources Management: Safeguards against Forecast Failure

In this study, a framework is proposed to inform reservoir operating policies with seasonal forecasts while also providing a safeguard against forecast failure. A case study is presented on the Westfield River in the Connecticut River Basin. Teleconnections with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) are used to develop seasonal forecasts of drought risk, which are then used to shift reservoir operating policies to optimize performance. Two reservoir objectives, water supply and hydropower production, are considered in this study. Hydroclimate forecasts are used to shift current drought severity levels used by operators to manage the system. Water releases for hydropower production are then altered to coincide with these drought severity levels and maximize income while minimizing the risk of over-allocation. Drought management strategies, including water transfers and restrictions, are also utilized in an adaptive framework to mitigate the negative consequences of altered operations stemming from failed forecasts.