A computer simulation approach to enrollment projection in higher education

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to report on the development and evaluation of a simulation model for the projection of enrollment in any system of higher education. A model of the movement of students through an educational system was designed and programmed for on-line usage by non-mathematically oriented planning personnel. The computer model offers the planner the opportunity to incorporate alternative sets of assumptions regarding the future by changing the original set of projections. These assumptions, formulated in numbers and proportions of students and the distribution of these students throughout the educational system, may be incorporated in one of two ways: (1) changed projections can be utilized as “pseudo-historical data” that contribute to the computation of new regression coefficients describing the relationship between the variables of the model and the independent variables relevant to them; or (2) the changed projections may be incorporated as one-time perturbations whose effects ultimately dampen and desist as the educational system regains its equilibrium. Evaluation of the model was conducted in depth at a private, technological university, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. In addition, it was evaluated in a public city university, a community college and a statewide planning activity.