Mathematical epidemiology of hiv/aids in cuba during the period 1986-2000.

The dynamics of HIV/AIDS epidemics in a specific region is de- termined not only by virology and virus transmission mechanisms, but also by region's socioeconomic aspects. In this paper we study the HIV transmission dynamics for Cuba. We modify the model of de Arazoza and Lounes [1] accord- ing to the background about the virology and the socioeconomic factors that affect the epidemiology of the Cuban HIV outbreak. The two main methods for detection of HIV/AIDS cases in Cuba are ''random'' testing and contact tracing. As the detection equipment is costly and depends on biotechnological advances, the testing rate can be changed by many external factors. Therefore, our model includes time-dependent testing rates. By comparing our model to the 1986-2000 Cuban HIV/AIDS data and the de Arazoza and Lounes model, we show that socioeconomic aspects are an important factor in determining the dynamics of the epidemic.

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