Bayesian Computation Via Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are an indispensable tool for performing Bayesian inference. This review discusses widely used sampling algorithms and illustrates their implementation on a probit regression model for lupus data. The examples considered highlight the importance of tuning the simulation parameters and underscore the important contributions of modern developments such as adaptive MCMC. We then use the theory underlying MCMC to explain the validity of the algorithms considered and to assess the variance of the resulting Monte Carlo estimators.

[1]  Y. Amit Convergence properties of the Gibbs sampler for perturbations of Gaussians , 1996 .

[2]  Gareth O. Roberts,et al.  Examples of Adaptive MCMC , 2009 .

[3]  H. Haario,et al.  An adaptive Metropolis algorithm , 2001 .

[4]  Y. Amit On rates of convergence of stochastic relaxation for Gaussian and non-Gaussian distributions , 1991 .

[5]  R. Tweedie,et al.  Rates of convergence of the Hastings and Metropolis algorithms , 1996 .

[6]  J. Rosenthal,et al.  Optimal scaling for various Metropolis-Hastings algorithms , 2001 .

[7]  S. Chib,et al.  Bayesian analysis of binary and polychotomous response data , 1993 .

[8]  J. Rosenthal Minorization Conditions and Convergence Rates for Markov Chain Monte Carlo , 1995 .

[9]  Radford M. Neal,et al.  Suppressing Random Walks in Markov Chain Monte Carlo Using Ordered Overrelaxation , 1995, Learning in Graphical Models.

[10]  Murali Haran,et al.  Markov chain Monte Carlo: Can we trust the third significant figure? , 2007, math/0703746.

[11]  G. Roberts,et al.  Stability of the Gibbs sampler for Bayesian hierarchical models , 2007, 0710.4234.

[12]  D. Madigan,et al.  A Systematic Statistical Approach to Evaluating Evidence from Observational Studies , 2014 .

[13]  Jun S. Liu,et al.  Monte Carlo strategies in scientific computing , 2001 .

[14]  P. Green,et al.  Delayed rejection in reversible jump Metropolis–Hastings , 2001 .

[15]  R. Douc,et al.  Quantitative bounds on convergence of time-inhomogeneous Markov chains , 2004, math/0503532.

[16]  Gareth O. Roberts,et al.  Quantitative Non-Geometric Convergence Bounds for Independence Samplers , 2011 .

[17]  Galin L. Jones,et al.  Implementing MCMC: Estimating with Confidence , 2011 .

[18]  Jun S. Liu,et al.  Covariance Structure and Convergence Rate of the Gibbs Sampler with Various Scans , 1995 .

[19]  Xiao-Li Meng,et al.  Perfection within Reach: Exact MCMC Sampling , 2011 .

[20]  Christian P. Robert,et al.  Introducing Monte Carlo Methods with R (Use R) , 2009 .

[21]  N. Metropolis,et al.  Equation of State Calculations by Fast Computing Machines , 1953, Resonance.

[22]  David Bruce Wilson,et al.  Exact sampling with coupled Markov chains and applications to statistical mechanics , 1996, Random Struct. Algorithms.

[23]  Eric M. Sobel,et al.  Using League Table Rankings in Public Policy Formation : Statistical Issues , 2014 .

[24]  Eric Moulines,et al.  Stability of Stochastic Approximation under Verifiable Conditions , 2005, Proceedings of the 44th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control.

[25]  Andrew Gelman,et al.  General methods for monitoring convergence of iterative simulations , 1998 .

[26]  J. Rosenthal,et al.  Geometric Ergodicity and Hybrid Markov Chains , 1997 .

[27]  L. Tierney Markov Chains for Exploring Posterior Distributions , 1994 .

[28]  R. Tweedie,et al.  Geometric convergence and central limit theorems for multidimensional Hastings and Metropolis algorithms , 1996 .

[29]  Andrew Gelman,et al.  Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo , 2011 .

[30]  M. Bédard On the robustness of optimal scaling for random walk metropolis algorithms , 2006 .

[31]  Hong Qian,et al.  Statistics and Related Topics in Single-Molecule Biophysics. , 2014, Annual review of statistics and its application.

[32]  Xiao-Li Meng,et al.  The Art of Data Augmentation , 2001 .

[33]  Bradley P. Carlin,et al.  Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit , 2002 .

[34]  P. Green,et al.  On Bayesian Analysis of Mixtures with an Unknown Number of Components (with discussion) , 1997 .

[35]  P. Barone,et al.  Improving Stochastic Relaxation for Gussian Random Fields , 1990, Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences.

[36]  Richard L. Tweedie,et al.  Markov Chains and Stochastic Stability , 1993, Communications and Control Engineering Series.

[37]  Christian P. Robert,et al.  Introducing Monte Carlo Methods with R , 2009 .

[38]  Christiane Lemieux,et al.  Acceleration of the Multiple-Try Metropolis algorithm using antithetic and stratified sampling , 2007, Stat. Comput..

[39]  E. Erosheva,et al.  Breaking Bad: Two Decades of Life-Course Data Analysis in Criminology, Developmental Psychology, and Beyond , 2014 .

[40]  Chao Yang,et al.  Learn From Thy Neighbor: Parallel-Chain and Regional Adaptive MCMC , 2009 .

[41]  S. Adler Over-relaxation method for the Monte Carlo evaluation of the partition function for multiquadratic actions , 1981 .

[42]  Radu V. Craiu,et al.  Multiprocess parallel antithetic coupling for backward and forward Markov Chain Monte Carlo , 2005, math/0505631.

[43]  W. K. Hastings,et al.  Monte Carlo Sampling Methods Using Markov Chains and Their Applications , 1970 .

[44]  Adrian F. M. Smith,et al.  Sampling-Based Approaches to Calculating Marginal Densities , 1990 .

[45]  Xiao-Li Meng,et al.  Seeking efficient data augmentation schemes via conditional and marginal augmentation , 1999 .

[46]  W. Wong,et al.  The calculation of posterior distributions by data augmentation , 1987 .

[47]  D. Rubin,et al.  Inference from Iterative Simulation Using Multiple Sequences , 1992 .

[48]  Jun S. Liu,et al.  The Multiple-Try Method and Local Optimization in Metropolis Sampling , 2000 .

[49]  J. Rosenthal,et al.  Coupling and Ergodicity of Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo Algorithms , 2007, Journal of Applied Probability.

[50]  S. Rosenthal,et al.  A review of asymptotic convergence for general state space Markov chains , 2002 .

[51]  D. Balding,et al.  Structured Regularizers for High-Dimensional Problems : Statistical and Computational Issues , 2014 .

[52]  P. Green Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo computation and Bayesian model determination , 1995 .

[53]  J. Rosenthal,et al.  General state space Markov chains and MCMC algorithms , 2004, math/0404033.

[54]  K. Lange,et al.  Next Generation Statistical Genetics: Modeling, Penalization, and Optimization in High-Dimensional Data. , 2014, Annual review of statistics and its application.

[55]  Jun S. Liu,et al.  Covariance structure of the Gibbs sampler with applications to the comparisons of estimators and augmentation schemes , 1994 .

[56]  Christian P. Robert,et al.  Monte Carlo Statistical Methods , 2005, Springer Texts in Statistics.

[57]  Joseph G. Ibrahim,et al.  Monte Carlo Methods in Bayesian Computation , 2000 .

[58]  Jun S. Liu,et al.  Parameter Expansion for Data Augmentation , 1999 .

[59]  Roberto Casarin,et al.  Interacting multiple try algorithms with different proposal distributions , 2010, Statistics and Computing.

[60]  Galin L. Jones,et al.  Honest Exploration of Intractable Probability Distributions via Markov Chain Monte Carlo , 2001 .

[61]  Charles J. Geyer,et al.  Practical Markov Chain Monte Carlo , 1992 .

[62]  J. Rosenthal QUANTITATIVE CONVERGENCE RATES OF MARKOV CHAINS: A SIMPLE ACCOUNT , 2002 .

[63]  Donald Geman,et al.  Stochastic Relaxation, Gibbs Distributions, and the Bayesian Restoration of Images , 1984, IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence.

[64]  Yan Bai,et al.  Divide and Conquer: A Mixture-Based Approach to Regional Adaptation for MCMC , 2009 .

[65]  A. Gelman,et al.  Weak convergence and optimal scaling of random walk Metropolis algorithms , 1997 .