STRATEGIC CALCULATIONS AND QUALITY CHALLENGERS IN UNITED STATES HOUSE ELECTIONS, 1986–1990

In the following analysis, we consider the decision of quality challengers to enter (or to not enter) into a campaign against a sitting incumbent. In addition to updating the literature on challenger quality, the analysis adds to the existing literature in the following ways: (1) it provides a more thorough examination of the determinants of challenger quality; (2) it pays special attention to the manner in which these factors influence the decision making of strategic politicians; and (3) it employs more than a single measure of challenger quality. We find that while the presence of a quality challenger appears to be determined primarily by the results of the previous election, the pool of quality candidates, national partisan tides, and the amount of money in the incumbent's campaign war chest also factor into the decision of a quality challenger to enter the electoral arena.