The impact of China's vehicle emissions on regional air quality in 2000 and 2020: A scenario analysis

Abstract. The number of vehicles in China has been increasing rapidly. We evaluate the impact of current and possible future vehicle emissions from China on Asian air quality. We modify the Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS) for China's road transport sector in 2000 using updated Chinese data for the number of vehicles, annual mileage, and emission factors. We develop two scenarios for 2020: a scenario where emission factors remain the same as they were in 2000 (No-Policy, NoPol), and a scenario where Euro 3 vehicle emission standards are applied to all vehicles (except motorcycles and rural vehicles). The Euro 3 scenario is an approximation of what may be the case in 2020 as, starting in 2008, all new vehicles in China (except motorcycles) were required to meet the Euro 3 emission standards. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem), we examine the regional air quality response to China's vehicle emissions in 2000 and in 2020 for the NoPol and Euro 3 scenarios. We evaluate the 2000 model results with observations in Japan, China, Korea, and Russia. Under NoPol in 2020, emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC) from China's vehicles more than double compared to the 2000 baseline. If all vehicles meet the Euro 3 regulations in 2020, however, these emissions are reduced by more than 50% relative to NoPol. The implementation of stringent vehicle emission standards leads to a large, simultaneous reduction of the surface ozone (O3) mixing ratios and particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations. In the Euro 3 scenario, surface O3 is reduced by more than 10 ppbv and surface PM2.5 is reduced by more than 10 μg m−3 relative to NoPol in Northeast China in all seasons. In spring, surface O3 mixing ratios and PM2.5 concentrations in neighboring countries are also reduced by more than 3 ppbv and 1 μg m−3, respectively. We find that effective regulation of China's road transport sector will be of significant benefit for air quality both within China and across East Asia as well.

[1]  L. Horowitz,et al.  Global crop yield reductions due to surface ozone exposure: 1. Year 2000 crop production losses and economic damage , 2011 .

[2]  Nicholas Z. Muller,et al.  Climate, Health, Agricultural and Economic Impacts of Tighter Vehicle-Emission Standards , 2011 .

[3]  Tracey Holloway,et al.  Quantifying pollution inflow and outflow over East Asia in spring with regional and global models , 2010 .

[4]  G. Grell,et al.  WRF-Chem simulation of East Asian air quality: Sensitivity to temporal and vertical emissions distributions , 2010 .

[5]  Nadine Unger,et al.  Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissions , 2009, Science.

[6]  H. Tanimoto,et al.  Influence of meteorological variability on interannual variations of springtime boundary layer ozone over Japan during 1981–2005 , 2009 .

[7]  Michael J Prather,et al.  Intercontinental impacts of ozone pollution on human mortality. , 2009, Environmental science & technology.

[8]  L. Horowitz,et al.  Evaluating inter-continental transport of fine aerosols: (1) Methodology, global aerosol distribution and optical depth , 2009 .

[9]  Junfeng Liu,et al.  Evaluating inter-continental transport of fine aerosols:(2) Global health impact , 2009 .

[10]  L. Horowitz,et al.  Effect of regional precursor emission controls on long-range ozone transport – Part 1: Short-term changes in ozone air quality , 2009 .

[11]  L. Horowitz,et al.  Effect of regional precursor emission controls on long-range ozone transport – Part 2: Steady-state changes in ozone air quality and impacts on human mortality , 2009 .

[12]  G. Carmichael,et al.  Asian emissions in 2006 for the NASA INTEX-B mission , 2009 .

[13]  X. Tie,et al.  Sensitivity of ozone concentrations to diurnal variations of surface emissions in Mexico City: A WRF/Chem modeling study , 2009 .

[14]  P. Purohit,et al.  Projections of SO2, NOx and carbonaceous aerosols emissions in Asia , 2009 .

[15]  D. Westerdahl,et al.  Characterization of on-road vehicle emission factors and microenvironmental air quality in Beijing, China , 2009 .

[16]  Janusz Cofala,et al.  The global impact of ozone on agricultural crop yields under current and future air quality legislation , 2009 .

[17]  Nadine Unger,et al.  Climate forcing and air quality change due to regional emissions reductions by economic sector , 2008 .

[18]  William J. Collins,et al.  Multimodel estimates of intercontinental source-receptor relationships for ozone pollution , 2008 .

[19]  Hong Huo,et al.  Characterization of vehicle driving patterns and development of driving cycles in Chinese cities , 2008 .

[20]  H. Ueda,et al.  MICS-Asia II: Model intercomparison and evaluation of ozone and relevant species , 2008 .

[21]  M. Fu,et al.  Effect of anthropogenic emissions in East Asia on regional ozone levels during spring cold continental outbreaks near Taiwan: A case study , 2008, Environ. Model. Softw..

[22]  Xiaoxu Bei,et al.  Road Transportation in China: How Big Are Fuel Consumption and Pollutant Emissions? , 2008 .

[23]  J. Schwartz,et al.  The Effect of Dose and Timing of Dose on the Association between Airborne Particles and Survival , 2007, Environmental health perspectives.

[24]  H. Oliver.  In-Use Vehicle Emissions in China — Tianjin Study , 2008 .

[25]  S. Parkd,et al.  MICS-Asia II : The model intercomparison study for Asia Phase II methodology and overview of findings , 2008 .

[26]  S. Xie,et al.  Estimation of vehicular emission inventories in China from 1980 to 2005 , 2007 .

[27]  R. Betts,et al.  Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing. Chapter 2 , 2007 .

[28]  H. Akimoto,et al.  An Asian emission inventory of anthropogenic emission sources for the period 1980-2020 , 2007 .

[29]  Rohit Mathur,et al.  Evaluation of several PM2.5 forecast models using data collected during the ICARTT/NEAQS 2004 field study: PM2.5 FORECAST MODEL EVALUATION , 2007 .

[30]  H. Huo,et al.  Projection of Chinese Motor Vehicle Growth, Oil Demand, and CO2 Emissions Through 2050 , 2007 .

[31]  L. Horowitz.  Past, present, and future concentrations of tropospheric ozone and aerosols: Methodology, ozone evaluation, and sensitivity to aerosol wet removal , 2006 .

[32]  D. Hauglustaine,et al.  Change in global aerosol composition since preindustrial times , 2006 .

[33]  J. Hao,et al.  Controlling Vehicular Emissions in Beijing During the Last Decade , 2006 .

[34]  J. Randerson,et al.  Interannual variability in global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004 , 2006 .

[35]  Renjian Zhang,et al.  Evaluation of the Models-3 Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system with observations obtained during the TRACE-P experiment: Comparison of ozone and its related species , 2006 .

[36]  Chein-Jung Shiu,et al.  The trend of surface ozone in Taipei, Taiwan, and its causes: Implications for ozone control strategies , 2006 .

[37]  David G. Streets,et al.  Influences of man-made emissions and climate changes on tropospheric ozone, methane, and sulfate at 2030 from a broad range of possible futures , 2006 .

[38]  Henk Eskes,et al.  Detection of the trend and seasonal variation in tropospheric NO2 over China , 2006 .

[39]  J. Burrows,et al.  Increase in tropospheric nitrogen dioxide over China observed from space , 2005, Nature.

[40]  Meinrat O. Andreae,et al.  Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future , 2005, Nature.

[41]  Georg A. Grell,et al.  Fully coupled “online” chemistry within the WRF model , 2005 .

[42]  D. Mauzerall,et al.  Characterizing distributions of surface ozone and its impact on grain production in China, Japan and South Korea: 1990 and 2020 , 2004 .

[43]  R. Vingarzan.  A review of surface ozone background levels and trends , 2004 .

[44]  H. Akimoto.  Global Air Quality and Pollution , 2003, Science.

[45]  G. Grell,et al.  A generalized approach to parameterizing convection combining ensemble and data assimilation techniques , 2002 .

[46]  J I Levy,et al.  Assessing the public health benefits of reduced ozone concentrations. , 2001, Environmental health perspectives.

[47]  I. J. Ackermann,et al.  Modeling the formation of secondary organic aerosol within a comprehensive air quality model system , 2001 .

[48]  J. Lamarque,et al.  A global simulation of tropospheric ozone and related tracers: Description and evaluation of MOZART, version 2 , 2001 .

[49]  P. J. Rasch,et al.  Sulfur chemistry in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model: Description, evaluation, features, and sensitivity to aqueous chemistry , 2000 .

[50]  Oliver Wild,et al.  Fast-J: Accurate Simulation of In- and Below-Cloud Photolysis in Tropospheric Chemical Models , 2000 .

[51]  M. Chin,et al.  Tropospheric sulfur simulation and sulfate direct radiative forcing in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model , 1999 .

[52]  M. Memmesheimer,et al.  Modal aerosol dynamics model for Europe: development and first applications , 1998 .

[53]  Daewon W. Byun,et al.  Sensitivity of ozone to model grid resolution—I. Application of high-resolution regional acid deposition model , 1995 .

[54]  D. Dockery,et al.  An association between air pollution and mortality in six U.S. cities. , 1993, The New England journal of medicine.

[55]  W. Stockwell,et al.  The second generation regional acid deposition model chemical mechanism for regional air quality modeling , 1990 .

[56]  Andreas Volz,et al.  Evaluation of the Montsouris series of ozone measurements made in the nineteenth century , 1988, Nature.