Learning and Predicting Financial Time Series by Combining Natural Computation and Agent Simulation

We investigate how, by combining natural computation and agent based simulation, it is possible to model financial time series. The agent based simulation can be used to functionally reproduce the structure of a financial market while the natural computation technique finds the most suitable parameter for the simulator. Our experimentation on the DJIA time series shows the effectiveness of this approach in modeling financial data. Also we compare the predictions made by our system to those obtained by other approaches.

[1]  J. Ross Quinlan,et al.  C4.5: Programs for Machine Learning , 1992 .

[2]  Ivan O. Kitov,et al.  PREDICTING CONOCOPHILLIPS AND EXXON MOBIL STOCK PRICE , 2009 .

[3]  Riccardo Poli,et al.  Particle swarm optimization , 1995, Swarm Intelligence.

[4]  Takao Terano,et al.  Analyzing the Influence of Overconfident Investors on Financial Markets Through Agent-Based Model , 2007, IDEAL.

[5]  Filippo Neri Using software agents to simulate how investors' greed and fear emotions explain the behavior of a f , 2009 .

[6]  Eric Bonabeau,et al.  Agent-based modeling: Methods and techniques for simulating human systems , 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[7]  Jirí Benes,et al.  On neural networks , 1990, Kybernetika.

[8]  Joshua M. Epstein,et al.  Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up , 1996 .

[9]  Aiko M. Hormann,et al.  Programs for Machine Learning. Part I , 1962, Inf. Control..

[10]  James L. McClelland,et al.  Parallel distributed processing: explorations in the microstructure of cognition, vol. 1: foundations , 1986 .

[11]  Blake LeBaron,et al.  Agent-based computational finance : Suggested readings and early research , 2000 .

[12]  Michael A. H. Dempster,et al.  Computational learning techniques for intraday FX trading using popular technical indicators , 2001, IEEE Trans. Neural Networks.

[13]  Goldberg,et al.  Genetic algorithms , 1993, Robust Control Systems with Genetic Algorithms.

[14]  Larry Bull,et al.  Learning Classifier Systems , 2002, Annual Conference on Genetic and Evolutionary Computation.

[15]  Joseph S. Zirilli Financial Prediction Using Neural Networks , 1996 .

[16]  Charlotte Bruun Advances in Artificial Economics , 2006 .

[17]  Yoav Freund,et al.  Automated trading with boosting and expert weighting , 2010 .

[18]  Graham Kendall,et al.  A multi-agent based simulated stock market - testing on different types of stocks , 2003, The 2003 Congress on Evolutionary Computation, 2003. CEC '03..

[19]  Joshua M. Epstein,et al.  Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up , 1996 .

[20]  Peter Ross,et al.  An Adaptive Agent Based Economic Model , 1999, Learning Classifier Systems.

[21]  Wander Jager,et al.  Artificial Multi-Agent Stock Markets: Simple Strategies, Complex Outcomes , 2006 .

[22]  Leigh Tesfatsion,et al.  Agent-Based Computational Economics: Growing Economies From the Bottom Up , 2002, Artificial Life.

[23]  Filippo Neri,et al.  Exploring the Power of Genetic Search in Learning Symbolic Classifiers , 1996, IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell..

[24]  W. Arthur,et al.  The Economy as an Evolving Complex System II , 1988 .

[25]  R. Palmer,et al.  Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectations in an Artificial Stock Market , 1996 .

[26]  David E. Goldberg,et al.  Genetic Algorithms in Search Optimization and Machine Learning , 1988 .

[27]  C. D. Gelatt,et al.  Optimization by Simulated Annealing , 1983, Science.

[28]  Geoffrey E. Hinton,et al.  Learning internal representations by error propagation , 1986 .

[29]  Yang Li,et al.  Analysis of Tiling Microarray Data by Learning Vector Quantization and Relevance Learning , 2007, IDEAL.