Statistical inference for max‐stable processes in space and time

Max-stable processes have proved to be useful for the statistical modelling of spatial extremes. Several families of max-stable random fields have been proposed in the literature. One such representation is based on a limit of normalized and rescaled pointwise maxima of stationary Gaussian processes that was first introduced by Kabluchko and co-workers. This paper deals with statistical inference for max-stable space–time processes that are defined in an analogous fashion. We describe pairwise likelihood estimation, where the pairwise density of the process is used to estimate the model parameters. For regular grid observations we prove strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the parameter estimates as the joint number of spatial locations and time points tends to ∞. Furthermore, we discuss extensions to irregularly spaced locations. A simulation study shows that the method proposed works well for these models.

[1]  Laurens de Haan,et al.  Stationary max-stable fields associated to negative definite functions. , 2008, 0806.2780.

[2]  David J. Nott,et al.  Pairwise likelihood methods for inference in image models , 1999 .

[3]  A. Wald Note on the Consistency of the Maximum Likelihood Estimate , 1949 .

[4]  Stilian A. Stoev On the ergodicity and mixing of max-stable processes , 2008 .

[5]  Claudia Kluppelberg,et al.  Max-stable processes for modelling extremes observed in space and time , 2011, 1107.4464.

[6]  Peter X.-K. Song,et al.  Joint composite estimating functions in spatiotemporal models , 2012 .

[7]  Zakhar Kabluchko,et al.  Extremes of space–time Gaussian processes , 2009 .

[8]  Yizao Wang,et al.  On the structure and representations of max-stable processes , 2009, Advances in Applied Probability.

[9]  Murad S. Taqqu,et al.  Extremal stochastic integrals: a parallel between max-stable processes and α-stable processes , 2005 .

[10]  J. Besag Spatial Interaction and the Statistical Analysis of Lattice Systems , 1974 .

[11]  Alan F. Karr,et al.  Inference for stationary random fields given Poisson samples , 1986, Advances in Applied Probability.

[12]  I. Prucha,et al.  Central Limit Theorems and Uniform Laws of Large Numbers for Arrays of Random Fields. , 2009, Journal of econometrics.

[13]  Richard A. Davis,et al.  COMMENTS ON PAIRWISE LIKELIHOOD IN TIME SERIES MODELS , 2011 .

[14]  L. de Haan,et al.  A Spectral Representation for Max-stable Processes , 1984 .

[15]  M. Sherman,et al.  On the asymptotic joint distribution of sample space--time covariance estimators , 2008, 0803.2171.

[16]  Sidney I. Resnick,et al.  Extreme values of independent stochastic processes , 1977 .

[17]  L. Weiss A Test of Fit for Multivariate Distributions , 1958 .

[18]  Erwin Bolthausen,et al.  On the Central Limit Theorem for Stationary Mixing Random Fields , 1982 .

[19]  Richard A. Davis,et al.  Extreme value theory for space-time processes with heavy-tailed distributions , 2008 .

[20]  Yizao Wang,et al.  Ergodic properties of sum- and max-stable stationary random fields via null and positive group actions , 2009, 0911.0610.

[21]  R. Lund Estimation in Conditionally Heteroscedastic Time Series Models , 2006 .

[22]  T. Gneiting Nonseparable, Stationary Covariance Functions for Space–Time Data , 2002 .

[23]  Zakhar Kabluchko,et al.  Extremes of independent Gaussian processes , 2009, 0909.0338.

[24]  S. Padoan,et al.  Likelihood-Based Inference for Max-Stable Processes , 2009, 0902.3060.

[25]  C. Varin,et al.  A note on composite likelihood inference and model selection , 2005 .

[26]  C. Dombry,et al.  Strong mixing properties of max-infinitely divisible random fields , 2012, 1201.4645.

[27]  D. Straumann Estimation in Conditionally Herteroscedastic Time Series Models , 2004 .

[28]  Richard A. Davis,et al.  The extremogram: a correlogram for extreme events , 2009, 1001.1821.

[29]  T. Eisner,et al.  Ergodic Theorems , 2019, Probability.

[30]  C. Varin On composite marginal likelihoods , 2008 .

[31]  Martin Schlather,et al.  Models for Stationary Max-Stable Random Fields , 2002 .

[32]  J. Hüsler Maxima of normal random vectors: between independence and complete dependence , 1989 .

[33]  Carlo Gaetan,et al.  Composite likelihood methods for space-time data , 2006 .

[34]  D. Cox,et al.  A note on pseudolikelihood constructed from marginal densities , 2004 .

[35]  Richard A. Davis,et al.  Towards estimating extremal serial dependence via the bootstrapped extremogram , 2012 .