Application of Probabilistic Models to the Response Analysis of Jack-Ups

Confidence in the long-term use of jack-up platforms in deep water and harsh environments requires appropriate models for their assessment under dynamic loading conditions. In this paper probabilistic models are used to develop further understanding of this assessment. Particular emphasis is placed on achieving a balanced approach in considering the non-linearities and uncertainties in the structure, foundations and wave loading. A method of calculating short-term extreme response statistics, while including variability in parameters, is briefly outlined, and a numerical experiment for typical central North Sea conditions detailed. Long-term extreme response statistics are also evaluated, and the quantitative influence of the probabilistic formulations of the variables (as opposed to deterministic values) shown.

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