A new approach to estimate commercial sector end-use load shapes and energy use intensities

We discuss the application of an end-use load shape estimation technique to develop annual energy use intensities (EUIs) and hourly end-use load shapes (LSs) for commercial buildings in the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) service territory. Results will update inputs for the commercial sector energy and peak demand forecasting models used by PG&E and the California Energy Commission (CEC). EUIs were estimated for 11 building types, up to 10 end uses, 3 fuel types, 2 building vintages, and up to 5 climate regions. The integrated methodology consists of two major parts. The first part is the reconciliation of initial end-use load-shape estimates with measured whole-building load data to produce intermediate EUIs and load shapes, using LBL`s End-use Disaggregation Algorithm, EDA. EDA is a deterministic hourly algorithm that relies on the observed characteristics of the measured hourly whole-building electricity use and disaggregates it into major end-use components. The end-use EUIs developed through the EDA procedure represent a snap-shot of electricity use by building type and end-use for two regions of the PG&E service territory, for the year that disaggregation is performed. In the second part of the methodology, we adjust the EUIs for direct application to forecasting models based onmore » factors such as climatic impacts on space-conditioning EUIs, fuel saturation effects, building and equipment vintage, and price impacts. Core data for the project are detailed on-site surveys for about 800 buildings, mail surveys ({approximately}6000), load research data for over 1000 accounts, and hourly weather data for five climate regions.« less