Is Lumpy Investment Relevant for the Business Cycle?

The lumpiness of investment activity at the plant level is a well‐established fact. Previous research has suggested that such discrete and occasional adjustments have significant aggregate implications. In particular, it has been argued that changes in plants’ willingness to invest in response to aggregate shocks can at times generate large movements in total investment demand. In this study, I reassess these predictions in a general equilibrium environment. Specifically, assuming nonconvex costs of capital adjustment, I derive generalized (S, s) adjustment rules yielding lumpy plant‐level investment within an otherwise standard equilibrium business cycle model. In contrast to previous partial equilibrium analyses, model results reveal that the aggregate effects of lumpy investment are negligible. In general equilibrium, households’ preference for relatively smooth consumption profiles offsets changes in aggregate investment demand implied by the introduction of lumpy plant‐level investment. As a result, adjustments in wages and interest rates yield quantity dynamics that are virtually indistinguishable from the standard model, and lumpy investment appears largely irrelevant for equilibrium business cycle analysis.

[1]  K. Hassett,et al.  Tax Policy and Investment , 1996 .

[2]  G. Hansen Indivisible Labor and the Business Cycle , 1985 .

[3]  Robert G. King,et al.  State-Dependent Pricing and the General Equilibrium Dynamics of Money and Output , 1999 .

[4]  Ricardo J. Caballero,et al.  Aggregate Investment , 1997 .

[5]  Michael Woodford,et al.  Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dynamics , 1995 .

[6]  E. Keith Tax Policy and Investment , 1949, Intertax.

[7]  M. Watson,et al.  The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations , 1998 .

[8]  Richard Rogerson,et al.  Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium , 1988 .

[9]  Edward C. Prescott,et al.  Economic Growth and Business Cycles , 2020, Frontiers of Business Cycle Research.

[10]  Edward C. Prescott,et al.  Theory ahead of business cycle measurement , 1986 .

[11]  Janice C. Eberly,et al.  Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility , 1996 .

[12]  K. West,et al.  Business Fixed Investment and the Recent Business Cycle in Japan , 1996, NBER Macroeconomics Annual.

[13]  Charles I. Plosser,et al.  Growth and Business Cycles I. The Basic Neoclassical Model , 1988 .

[14]  Randall Wright,et al.  Involuntary unemployment in economies with efficient risk sharing , 1988 .

[15]  Ricardo J. Caballero,et al.  Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment , 1991 .

[16]  Ricardo J. Caballero,et al.  Fixed Costs: The Demise of Marginal Q , 1996 .

[17]  S. Rebelo,et al.  Resuscitating Real Business Cycles , 2000 .

[18]  Bob Chirinko,et al.  Business Fixed Investment Spending: Modeling Strategies, Empirical Results, and Policy Implications , 1993 .

[19]  Charles I. Plosser,et al.  Production, growth and business cycles , 1988 .

[20]  Ricardo J. Caballero,et al.  Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,S) Approach , 1994 .

[21]  Jonas D. M. Fisher,et al.  (S,s) Inventory Policies in General Equilibrium , 1998 .

[22]  Russell Cooper,et al.  Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps , 1995 .

[23]  Marcelo Veracierto Plant level irreversible investment and equilibrium business cycles , 2002 .

[24]  Andrew Caplin,et al.  AGGREGATION AND OPTIMIZATION WITH STATE-DEPENDENT PRICING , 1997 .

[25]  J. Stock,et al.  Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series , 1998 .

[26]  Ricardo J. Caballero,et al.  Dynamic (S,S) Economies , 1991 .

[27]  E. Prescott Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement , 1986 .

[28]  Mark E. Doms,et al.  Capital Adjustment Patterns in Manufacturing Plants , 1998 .