Methods of forecasting mortality in population projections
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Methods of forecasting mortality in population projections are described and applied to data for the Federal Republic of Germany. The projections are based on the component method (with an even migration balance) and extend up to the year 2000. "First it is shown how the probabilities of death in the life tables relating to individual years of age...can be converted into calendar-related probabilities of death as they are required for population projections....The second part of the contribution deals with the updating of the probabilities of death. The available data necessitate the use of differing projection methods for the age-ranges of up to 90 years and over 90 years....The third part of the contribution compares the results of two projections which maintain the mortality of the base year at a constant level or [update] it by the above-mentioned procedures respectively." (summary in ENG FRE) (EXCERPT)