Multivariate analysis of landscape wildfire dynamics in a Mediterranean ecosystem of Greece

This paper focuses on spatial distribution of long-term fire patterns versus physical and anthropogenic elements of the environment that determine wildfire dynamics in Greece. Logistic regression and correspondence analysis were applied in a spatial database that had been developed and managed within a Geographic Information System. Cartographic fire data were statistically correlated with basic physical and human geography factors (geomorphology, climate, land use and human activities) to estimate the degree of their influence at landscape scale. Land cover types of natural and agricultural vegetation were the most influential factors for explaining landscape wildfire dynamics in conjunction with topography and grazing.

[1]  K. Kalabokidis,et al.  Introducing wildfire into forest management planning: towards a conceptual approach , 2002 .

[2]  N. Koutsias,et al.  Logistic regression modelling of multitemporal Thematic Mapper data for burned area mapping , 1998 .

[3]  A. Navas,et al.  Assessing soil erosion in a Pyrenean mountain catchment using GIS and fallout 137Cs , 2005 .

[4]  William K. Michener,et al.  Ecological Data: Design, Management and Processing , 2000 .

[5]  P. Diggle,et al.  Spatial point pattern analysis and its application in geographical epidemiology , 1996 .

[6]  Donald McKenzie,et al.  Forest Structure and Fire Hazard in Dry Forests of the Western United States , 2005 .

[7]  M. Vasconcelos,et al.  Spatial Prediction of Fire Ignition Probabilities: Comparing Logistic Regression and Neural Networks , 2001 .

[8]  Subhash Sharma.  Applied multivariate techniques , 1995 .

[9]  B. Worton.  Kernel methods for estimating the utilization distribution in home-range studies , 1989 .

[10]  C. Goodess.  Mediterranean Climate-Variability and Trends , 2003 .

[11]  Robert C. Schwartz,et al.  Soil Water Depletion and Root Distribution of Three Dryland Crops , 2005 .

[12]  Helen Briassoulis,et al.  Sustainable tourism and the question of the commons , 2002 .

[13]  Salvatore Manfreda,et al.  Space‐time modeling of soil moisture: Stochastic rainfall forcing with heterogeneous vegetation , 2006 .

[14]  P. Andrews.  BEHAVE : Fire Behavior Prediction and Fuel Modeling System - BURN Subsystem, Part 1 , 1986 .

[15]  George L. W. Perry,et al.  Landscapes, space and equilibrium: shifting viewpoints , 2002 .

[16]  Kostas Kalabokidis,et al.  Fire and Society: A Comparative Analysis of Wildfire in Greece and the United States , 2005 .

[17]  M. Finney.  FARSITE : Fire Area Simulator : model development and evaluation , 1998 .

[18]  D. D. French,et al.  Exploring spatial vegetation dynamics using logistic regression and a multinomial logit model , 2001 .

[19]  S. Galatsidas,et al.  Effects of wildfire season on the resprouting of kermes oak (Quercus coccifera L.) , 2005 .

[20]  Richard A. Minnich,et al.  Mapping probability of fire occurrence in San Jacinto Mountains, California, USA , 1993 .

[21]  W. Köppen.  Das geographische System der Klimate , 1936 .

[22]  G. Roloff,et al.  A process for modeling short- and long-term risk in the southern Oregon Cascades , 2005 .

[23]  Hans C. Jessen,et al.  Applied Logistic Regression Analysis , 1996 .

[24]  Ángel M. Felicísimo.  Modeling the Potential Distribution of Forests with a GIS , 2002 .

[25]  Yue-Hong Chou,et al.  Management of wildfires with a geographical information system , 1992, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..

[26]  Robert P Freckleton,et al.  Why do we still use stepwise modelling in ecology and behaviour? , 2006, The Journal of animal ecology.

[27]  V. Clark,et al.  Computer-aided multivariate analysis , 1991 .

[28]  Raymond J. Dezzani,et al.  Spatial autocorrelation of wildfire distribution in the Idyllwild Quadrangle, San Jacinto Mountain, California. , 1990 .

[29]  Jay D. Miller,et al.  Cluster analysis of structural stage classes to map wildland fuels in a Madrean ecosystem. , 2003, Journal of environmental management.

[30]  W. Mendenhall,et al.  A Second Course in Statistics: Regression Analysis , 1996 .

[31]  Robert M. Argent,et al.  An overview of model integration for environmental applications--components, frameworks and semantics , 2004, Environ. Model. Softw..

[32]  K. Ryan.  Dynamic interactions between forest structure and fire behavior in boreal ecosystems , 2002 .

[33]  A. Ager,et al.  Effects of spatial scale on the perception and assessment of risk of natural disturbance in forested ecosystems: Examples from Northeastern Oregon , 2005 .

[34]  Patricia L. Andrews,et al.  Introduction to wildland fire, 2nd edition revised , 1996 .

[35]  Nikos Koutsias,et al.  FIRE OCCURRENCE PATTERNS AT LANDSCAPE LEVEL: BEYOND POSITIONAL ACCURACY OF IGNITION POINTS WITH KERNEL DENSITY ESTIMATION METHODS , 2008 .

[36]  K. Oost,et al.  Soil erosion as a driver of land-use change , 2005 .