Are new open building data useful for flood vulnerability modelling?

Abstract. Flood risk modelling aims to quantify the probability of flooding and the resulting consequences for exposed elements. The assessment of flood damage is a core task that requires the description of complex flood damage processes including the influences of flooding intensity and vulnerability characteristics. Multi-variable modelling approaches are better suited for this purpose than simple stage-damage functions. However, multi-variable flood vulnerability models also often have problems to predict damage for regions other than those for which they have been developed. A transfer of vulnerability models usually results in a drop of model predictive performance. Here we investigate the question of whether data from the open data source OpenStreetMap is suitable to model flood vulnerability of residential buildings and whether the underlying standardized data model is helpful to transfer models across regions. We develop a new data set by calculating numerical spatial measures for residential building footprint geometries and combine these variables with an empirical data set of observed flood damage. From this data set random forest regression models are learned using regional sub-sets and are tested for predicting flood damage in other regions. This regional split-sample validation approach reveals that the predictive performance of models based on OpenStreetMap data is comparable to alternative multi-variable models, which use comprehensive and detailed information about preparedness, socio-economic status and other aspects of residential building vulnerability. However, our results show that using numerical spatial measures derived from OpenStreetMap building geometries does not resolve all problems of model transfer. Still, we conclude that these variables are useful proxies for flood vulnerability modelling, because these data are consistent, openly accessible, and thus make it easier and more cost-effective to transfer vulnerability models to other regions.