Do Currency Markets Absorb News Quickly?

Abstract This paper addresses whether macro news arrivals affect currency markets over time. The null from macro exchange rate theory is that they do not: macro news is impounded in exchange rates instantaneously. We test this by examining the effects of news on subsequent trades by end-user participants (such as hedge funds, mutual funds, and non-financial corporations). News arrivals induce subsequent changes in trading in all of the major end-user segments. These induced changes remain significant for days. Induced trades also have persistent effects on prices. Currency markets are not responding to news instantaneously.

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