The prediction of maximum air pollution concentrations for tsp and co using Larsen's model and the ATDL model

Abstract A modeling methodology is introduced to predict maximum TSP concentrations. The methodology consists of using the ATDL model of Gifford and Hanna (1971) and the Larsen model (1971) to predict the distribution of air pollution concentrations from wind speed data for the upper percentiles. The data set used is total suspended particulate (TSP) data. Since the highest TSP concentrations occur at extremely low wind speeds where the use of the ATDL model is questionable, the methodology adopted here is to use the ATDL model together with wind speed data to reproduce TSP concentrations only for the range of wind speeds where the model is applicable. Assuming these TSP concentrations are lognormally distributed, Larsen's model is then used to predict the maximum TSP concentration. These results agree with the work by Daly and Steele (1976) for CO. This methodology works quite well, for time averages of 8 h or more but in its present form is questionable for shorter time averages.