Stabilization: The political economy of overkill

Abstract This paper considers whether national and international aspects of the IMF's stabilization programmes during the 1970s and early 1980s have resulted in a process of ‘overkill’ — or, in other words, a process of economic retrenchment which went much further than was strictly necessary in terms of what could have been regarded as reasonable objectives. In the international context, the author describes how the attack on inflation has become an end in itself, at the expense of other stated objectives of the IMF, thus creating a distortion of its priorities. The paper discusses errors of diagnosis which have led to this disorientation and explains why deflationary policies should not be regarded as a panacea. The paper then considers the nead for equity and efficiency in the distribution of the political and economic costs of adjustment. The next section of this paper discusses the assumptions underlying the IMF's treatment of Fund members and to what extent ‘even-handedness’ in the application of stabilization measures may result in inequality of burden-sharing among borrowers. Problems related to monetarist theories and the consequent policies are examined, followed by a consideration of the dangers involved in devising ‘straightforward’ performance criteria in the form of precise monetary targets that can readily be monitored by the IMF. This means of evaluating the national adjustment policies' success is seen to be unsatisfactory, viz. the frequency of stand-by arrangement breakdowns and mistakes in forecasting. The paper concludes that the concept of unilateral adjustment is not an acceptable basis for IMF supervision of the international monetary system. In addition, care should be taken to avoid overkill in determining the degree and character of adjustment needed in stabilization programmes. One possible solution to the extra burden imposed on the LDCs might be a liberalization of the compensatory financing facility with the objective of applying the same kind of regime to imports as to exports.