To reveal or not to reveal? Strategic disclosure of private information in negotiation

Within the bargaining literature, it is widely held that negotiators should never reveal information that will lead to disclosure of their reservation prices. We analyze a simple bargaining and search model in which the informed buyer can choose to reveal his cost of searching for an outside price (which determines his reservation price) to the uninformed seller. We demonstrate that buyers can be made better off by revealing their search cost. More interestingly, we also find that, depending on the assumed distribution of search costs, sometimes buyers with relatively low search costs should reveal their private information whereas in other cases buyers with relatively high search costs should do so. We then test our model experimentally and find that subjects' behavior is not entirely consistent with theoretical predictions. In general, bargainers' behavior is better explained by a bounded rationality model similar to "fictitious play".

[1]  Kalyan Chatterjee,et al.  Bargaining and Search with Incomplete Information about Outside Options , 1998 .

[2]  A. R. G. Heesterman,et al.  Competitive strategies: An advanced textbook in game theory for business students , 1981 .

[3]  Ching Chyi Lee,et al.  Bargaining and Search with Recall: A Two-Period Model with Complete Information , 1994, Oper. Res..

[4]  Don A. Moore,et al.  Misperceiving the value of information in predicting the performance of others , 2006 .

[5]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[6]  J. Ponssard On the Concept of the Value of Information in Competitive Situations , 1976 .

[7]  D. Fudenberg,et al.  The Theory of Learning in Games , 1998 .

[8]  M. Bazerman Judgment in Managerial Decision Making , 1990 .

[9]  L. Thompson,et al.  The Mind and Heart of the Negotiator , 1997 .

[10]  S. D. Deshmukh,et al.  The Role of External Search in Bilateral Bargaining , 1987, Oper. Res..

[11]  Xueguang Chen,et al.  A simultaneous multi-issue negotiation through autonomous agents , 2011, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[12]  Don A. Moore,et al.  PAYING $1 TO LOSE $2: MISPERCEPTIONS OF THE VALUE OF INFORMATION IN PREDICTING THE PERFORMANCE OF OTHERS. , 2003 .

[13]  D. Kahneman A perspective on judgment and choice: mapping bounded rationality. , 2003, The American psychologist.

[14]  George Loewenstein,et al.  The Curse of Knowledge in Economic Settings: An Experimental Analysis , 1989, Journal of Political Economy.

[15]  Gary E. Bolton A Comparative Model of Bargaining: Theory and Evidence , 1991 .