Meeting the future in the past - using counterfactual history to imagine computing futures

The future is inherently hard to predict, yet we know there are various factors that will limit the future of computing (scarcity of materials, energy shortages and various biophysical limits) in both substantial and disruptive ways. When we look at the past and at mainstream projected computing futures, all we see is exponential growth. While it is easy to reject such trajectories, it is much harder to imagine and propose credible, preferable and evocative alternatives. Breaking away from default modes of thinking about computing is difficult but possible, and we here present a methodology - counterfactual history - that can help us imagine alternative scenarios for computing. We argue that by learning from counterfactual pasts ("what-if scenarios"), we can more easily liberate our ideas from various preconceptions that hamper them and box them in. This makes it possible to generate and entertain a more diverse "portfolio" of ideas about the future and help us better prepare for meeting future challenges.

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