Quantitative analysis of carbon emissions for new town planning based on the system dynamics approach

Abstract The high contribution of new constructions to rapidly growing carbon emissions renders the planning of new towns a strategic element to consider in building sustainable cities. However, studies on qualitative prediction of carbon emission for new town planning are still deficient. This paper uses system dynamics approach and establishes a “population-economy-land-carbon emission” model to perform, unlike previous models, quantitative predictions on new towns, sector by sector. The prediction model which is applied to Xishan new town (Urumqi) can be used to select the best planning scenario based on the predictions of carbon emission and land-use economic efficiency. The model can also help determine the key sectors—the industrial sector in this case—to consider in carbon regulation strategies along with the economic targets. The model applied to Xishan reveals also that considering the building sector, renewable energies should be promoted, especially for heating. Transportation systems should be operated based on the population density to avoid more pollution than necessary. Finally, the study shows that cities must rely on a larger, perhaps even regional, the scale of green spaces to be meet carbon sequestration challenges. The standard framework used here can be considered for other towns in similar climatic zones of China.