Integrated Framework of Modified Accident Energy Release Model and Network Theory to Explore the Full Complexity of the Hangzhou Subway Construction Collapse

AbstractThe Hangzhou subway construction collapse (HZSCC) is a serious accident that caused the most casualties in China’s subway construction history. This disaster took place on November 15, 2008, causing 21 fatalities and 24 injuries. Past analyses of the HZSCC were incomplete, and using traditional linear causation models made it difficult to grasp the nature of the HZSCC within its complex context of subway construction. This study aims to capture the full complexity of the HZSCC, on the basis of an integrated framework of a modified accident energy release model (MAERM) and network theory. Given that the energy release model has the advantage of revealing the nature of accident occurrence from an ontological perspective, it was adopted and was modified by employing the hierarchy of the causal influences model. The HZSCC causation analysis was conducted by identifying energy sources and analyzing invalidation of energy restraints. This accident is not isolated but rather a combination of 11 subaccide...

[1]  Miroslaw J. Skibniewski,et al.  A probabilistic approach for safety risk analysis in metro construction , 2014 .

[2]  A. J. Brazier.  A summary of incident reporting in the process industry , 1994 .

[3]  Kalle Kähkönen,et al.  Management and planning under complexities of metro construction , 2015 .

[4]  Jongwon Seo,et al.  Risk-Based Safety Impact Assessment Methodology for Underground Construction Projects in Korea , 2008 .

[5]  Alistair G.F. Gibb,et al.  Towards an autonomous real-time tracking system of near-miss accidents on construction sites , 2010 .

[6]  Min Liu,et al.  Using Pajek and Centrality Analysis to Identify a Social Network of Construction Trades , 2012 .

[7]  Ernesto Salzano,et al.  The analysis of domino accidents triggered by vapor cloud explosions , 2005, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[8]  Zhipeng Zhou,et al.  Developing a Versatile Subway Construction Incident Database for Safety Management , 2012 .

[9]  Carlos T. Formoso,et al.  Identification, analysis and dissemination of information on near misses: A case study in the construction industry , 2010 .

[10]  Weiwei Wu,et al.  Design and implementation of an identification system in construction site safety for proactive accident prevention. , 2012, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[11]  Albert-László Barabási,et al.  Statistical mechanics of complex networks , 2001, ArXiv.

[12]  Duncan J. Watts,et al.  Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks , 1998, Nature.

[13]  Pierre Le Bot.  Human reliability data, human error and accident models - illustration through the Three Mile Island accident analysis , 2004, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[14]  Loïc Brevault,et al.  Accident precursors, near misses, and warning signs: Critical review and formal definitions within the framework of Discrete Event Systems , 2013, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[15]  H. W. Heinrich,et al.  Industrial Accident Prevention: a Scientific Approach , 1951 .

[16]  Javier Irizarry,et al.  Using Grounded Theory Methodology to Explore the Information of Precursors Based on Subway Construction Incidents , 2015 .

[17]  Yang Miang Goh,et al.  Applying systems thinking concepts in the analysis of major incidents and safety culture , 2010 .

[18]  Jaime Santos-Reyes,et al.  A systemic analysis of the Edge Hill railway accident. , 2009, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[19]  Nancy G. Leveson,et al.  Applying systems thinking to analyze and learn from events , 2010 .

[20]  Nancy G. Leveson,et al.  A new accident model for engineering safer systems , 2004 .

[21]  Harry Eugene Stanley,et al.  Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks , 2009, Nature.

[22]  Vivian W. Y Tam,et al.  Impacts of multi-layer chain subcontracting on project management performance , 2011 .

[23]  Miroslaw J. Skibniewski,et al.  Decision support analysis for safety control in complex project environments based on Bayesian Networks , 2013, Expert Syst. Appl..

[24]  Simon Jones,et al.  The importance of near miss reporting to further improve safety performance , 1999 .

[25]  Chris W. Johnson,et al.  A survey of logic formalisms to support mishap analysis , 2003, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[26]  Maria Grazia Gnoni,et al.  “Lean occupational” safety: An application for a Near-miss Management System design , 2013 .

[27]  Andrew Hale,et al.  Safety rules o.k.?: Possibilities and limitations in behavioural safety strategies , 1990 .

[28]  Bao Xi,et al.  Explaining the organizational and contractual context of subway construction disasters in China: The case of Hangzhou , 2012 .

[29]  A R Duff,et al.  Contributing factors in construction accidents. , 2005, Applied ergonomics.

[30]  Peter M. Madsen,et al.  Failing to Learn? The Effects of Failure and Success on Organizational Learning in the Global Orbital Launch Vehicle Industry , 2010 .

[31]  Jorma Saari,et al.  A model for analysis of accidents and its application , 1982 .

[32]  Xianguo Wu,et al.  Using nD technology to develop an integrated construction management system for city rail transit construction , 2012 .

[33]  Paulo Victor Rodrigues de Carvalho,et al.  Overcoming the blame game to learn from major accidents: A systemic analysis of an Anhydrous Ammonia leakage accident , 2012 .

[34]  Alistair G.F. Gibb,et al.  Accident precursors and near misses on construction sites: An investigative tool to derive information from accident databases , 2010 .

[35]  Xiao-nan Gong,et al.  Excavation collapse of Hangzhou subway station in soft clay and numerical investigation based on orthogonal experiment method , 2012 .

[36]  P Marsh,et al.  Near miss and minor injury information--can it be used to plan and evaluate injury prevention programmes? , 2000, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[37]  Javier Irizarry,et al.  Using Network Theory to Explore the Complexity of Subway Construction Accident Network (SCAN) for Promoting Safety Management , 2014 .

[38]  Lieyun Ding,et al.  Development of web-based system for safety risk early warning in urban metro construction , 2013 .

[39]  Vicki M. Bier,et al.  The analysis of accident precursors and near misses: Implications for risk assessment and risk management , 1990 .

[40]  Jens Rasmussen,et al.  Risk management in a dynamic society: a modelling problem , 1997 .