A numerical model study of barotropic subtidal water exchange between estuary and subestuaries (tributaries) in the Chesapeake Bay during northeaster events

Abstract Northeasters are storms that affect the Chesapeake Bay area more frequently, last for longer periods and impact larger areas than hurricanes. Their impacts on storm surge development and the water exchange between estuary and subestuaries (tributaries) in the Bay vary from one event to another. In this study, three different northeaster events were selected based on their tracks when passing through the Chesapeake Bay area. An unstructured grid finite volume model ELCIRC was utilized to examine the response of the water level of the Chesapeake Bay to three selected northeasters, and the barotropic subtidal water exchanges between the tributaries and the estuary in the Bay. Model sensitivity tests were conducted to examine various effects induced by, for example, tide–surge interaction, open boundary condition, river inflow, wetting-and-drying of the low-lying land area and the usage of 2-D or 3-D mode. The results show that excluding tide–surge interaction did not deteriorate the model performance in the lower Bay but it increased the model inaccuracy in the upper Bay and in the tributaries; using radiation boundary condition decreased the sea level variation in the Bay without appropriately specifying incoming wave; excluding wetting-and-drying of low-lying land area reduced the volume flux by approximately 5%; and using 3-D mode generally increased the water level variation in the Bay. The model predicted storm surges well for three northeaster events. Further diagnostic experiments show that the relative importance of the local and remote winds in generating storm surges in the Bay varied with different northeasters. The inverse barometeric effect played an important role in inducing storm surges for two selected northeasters. The interaction between the tributaries and the Bay proper is considerable. The impacts of the remote wind and Bay wind can be much larger than that of the tributary wind and, thus, control the hydrodynamics and mass transport in the tributaries. The Bay wind and tributary wind effects are largely affected by the wind direction and wind phase, and geographic locations of the tributaries in the Bay. The tributary wind can be dominant over the remote wind and Bay wind effects when the local wind stress and barometric pressure changes are large.

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