Development of a new translational and rotational slides prediction model in Langhe hills (north-western Italy) and its application to the 2011 March landslide event

This study outlines the relationship between antecedent precipitations and activation of the translational rock-block slides (TRBSs). This type of landslide has the peculiarity to involve wide sectors of the sedimentary bedrock, and it is emblematic in the Langhe area, in the southern hilly part of Piemonte in the Tertiary Piemonte Basin. The Langhe hills are particularly renowned for the cultivation of valuable vineyards, and therefore, constitute a place of important economic and tourist interest. Furthermore, the high density of structures and infrastructures in this area exposes a number of elements to the activity of these large landslides. In order to minimize human and economic losses, it is particularly important to establish a warning system capable of providing announcement of activation of TRBSs with sufficient advance. In this direction, the Environmental Protection Agency of Piemonte (ARPA Piemonte) developed a precipitation–threshold-based model. The model is set up on an extensive collection of historical data about the landslides movements (since 1917) and the related complete meteorological dataset. The regional weather gauge network and the forecasted precipitation amount, including snow melt’s contribution, provide input data to the model. Output model can be tested by observations derived by the regional landslides monitoring network consisting of inclinometers and groundwater gauges managed by ARPA Piemonte.