Analyses of the decarbonizing Thailand's energy system toward low-carbon futures

Thailand is heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels. The utilization of energy resources is the main source of CO2 emissions. Thus, restructuring current energy system is essential for the realization of low-carbon futures. Efficient and rational implementations of low emission reduction strategies and policies require application of energy system models that have the ability to estimate the baseline energy demand and CO2 emissions, and to explore technical and economic effects of different strategies over time. This paper reviews and discusses the perspective of low-carbon energy systems in the case of Thailand. It analyzes the projected development of energy system in Thailand. The literature on modeling of energy systems is analyzed and discussed. The paper presents a quantitative comparison of the selected energy model applications in terms of energy demand and energy-related CO2 emissions. The paper explores the potential pathways using findings from existing modeling studies to guide the development of a low-carbon energy system within a backcasting framework. It is found that there are wide ranges of projected emissions paths across the models. The findings suggest that there is sufficient technical potential to achieve a low-carbon target by 2030.