Disaggregate Demand Analyses for Conventional and Alternative Fueled Automobiles: A Review

ABSTRACT This paper offers a critical overview of the full spectrum of household discrete choice–based automobile demand models. Data collection methods, modeling approaches, and the relevant explanatory factors are the primary themes of this review. Furthermore, we examine research methods for assessing the demand for alternative fueled vehicles with an emphasis on stated choices analysis. Overall, this review puts into perspective theoretical assumptions and empirical results for the development of modeling systems capable of assessing market shares and benefits of policy interventions regarding both conventional and alternative fueled vehicle technologies.

[1]  David A. Hensher EMPIRICAL VEHICLE CHOICE AND USAGE MODELS IN THE HOUSEHOLD SECTOR : A REVIEW , 1985 .

[2]  Gerard de Jong,et al.  A disaggregate model system of vehicle holding duration, type choice and use , 1996 .

[3]  Thomas F. Golob,et al.  A Transactions Choice Model for Forecasting Demand for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles , 1996 .

[4]  John K. Dagsvik,et al.  Potential demand for alternative fuel vehicles , 2002 .

[5]  Susan L Handy,et al.  METHODOLOGIES FOR EXPLORING THE LINK BETWEEN URBAN FORM AND TRAVEL BEHAVIOR , 1996 .

[6]  Trine Kjær,et al.  A review of the discrete choice experiment - with emphasis on its application in health care , 2005 .

[7]  G. Ewing,et al.  Car fuel-type choice under travel demand management and economic incentives , 1998 .

[8]  N. Scott Cardell,et al.  Choice of smallest car by multi-vehicle households and the demand for electric vehicles , 1980 .

[9]  John Rust,et al.  A nested logit model of automobile holdings for one vehicle households , 1985 .

[10]  Moshe Ben-Akiva,et al.  DISAGGREGATE BEHAVIOR MODEL OF AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP , 1976 .

[11]  K. Train,et al.  Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns , 1998 .

[12]  Daniel McFadden,et al.  Modelling the Choice of Residential Location , 1977 .

[13]  Kenneth Train,et al.  The potential market for non-gasoline-powered automobiles , 1980 .

[14]  R. Tay,et al.  New Vehicle Consumption and Fuel Efficiency: A Nested Logit Approach 1 1 An earlier version of this , 1998 .

[15]  Jerry A. Hausman,et al.  Assessing the potential demand for electric cars , 1981 .

[16]  Eungcheol Kim,et al.  EFFECTS OF PUBLIC TRANSIT ON AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP AND USE IN HOUSEHOLDS OF THE USA , 2004 .

[17]  Patricia L. Mokhtarian,et al.  What type of vehicle do people drive? The role of attitude and lifestyle in influencing vehicle type choice - eScholarship , 2004 .

[18]  Eric J. Miller,et al.  Dynamic Modeling of Household Automobile Transactions , 2003 .

[19]  Charles L Purvis,et al.  USING 1990 CENSUS PUBLIC USE MICRODATA SAMPLE TO ESTIMATE DEMOGRAPHIC AND AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP MODELS , 1994 .

[20]  D. McFadden Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior , 1972 .

[21]  K. Train,et al.  Joint mixed logit models of stated and revealed preferences for alternative-fuel vehicles , 1999, Controlling Automobile Air Pollution.

[22]  Lidia P. Kostyniuk,et al.  Incentives for Alternate Fuel Vehicles: A Large-Scale Stated Preference Experiment , 2003 .

[23]  You-Lian Chu,et al.  Automobile Ownership Analysis Using Ordered Probit Models , 2002 .

[24]  Moshe Ben-Akiva,et al.  Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application to Travel Demand , 1985 .

[25]  D A Hensher,et al.  CHOOSING BETWEEN CONVENTIONAL ELECTRIC AND LPG/CNG VEHICLES IN SINGLE-VEHICLE HOUSEHOLDS. IN: TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR RESEARCH. THE LEADING EDGE , 2001 .

[26]  John M. Rose,et al.  Applied Choice Analysis: List of tables , 2005 .

[27]  John E. Calfee,et al.  ESTIMATING THE DEMAND FOR ELECTRIC AUTOMOBILES USING FULLY DISAGGREGATED PROBABILISTIC CHOICE ANALYSIS , 1985 .

[28]  Eric J. Miller,et al.  Nested Logit Models and Artificial Neural Networks for Predicting Household Automobile Choices: Comparison of Performance , 2002 .

[29]  Pavlos S. Kanaroglou,et al.  Household demand and willingness to pay for clean vehicles , 2007 .

[30]  David A. Hensher,et al.  Towards a dynamic discrete-choice model of household automobile fleet size and composition , 1985 .

[31]  B. Wee Land use and transport: research and policy challenges , 2002 .

[32]  K. Train,et al.  Mixed Logit with Repeated Choices: Households' Choices of Appliance Efficiency Level , 1998, Review of Economics and Statistics.

[33]  Carol C.S. Gilbert,et al.  A DURATION MODEL OF AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP , 1992 .

[34]  Mike Wright,et al.  Qualitative Choice Analysis-Theory, Econometrics and an Application to Automobile Demand , 1987 .

[35]  Fred L. Mannering,et al.  Recent directions in automobile demand modeling , 1985 .

[36]  Joseph L. Schofer,et al.  FACTORS AFFECTING AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP AND USE , 1992 .

[37]  John M. Rose,et al.  Applied Choice Analysis: List of tables , 2005 .

[38]  Toshiyuki Yamamoto,et al.  Competing-Risks-Duration Model of Household Vehicle Transactions with Indicators of Changes in Explanatory Variables , 1999 .

[39]  David A. Hensher,et al.  The Mixed Logit Model: the State of Practice and Warnings for the Unwary , 2001 .

[40]  Eric J. Miller,et al.  Empirical Investigation of Household Vehicle Type Choice Decisions , 2003 .

[41]  Alain L. Kornhauser,et al.  A GAME THEORETIC/NETWORK EQUILIBRIUM SOLUTION APPROACH FOR THE RAILROAD FREIGHT CAR MANAGEMENT PROBLEM , 1993 .

[42]  Chandra R. Bhat,et al.  A Comprehensive Analysis of Built Environment Characteristics on Household Residential Choice and Auto Ownership Levels , 2007 .

[43]  M. Karlaftis,et al.  Automobile Ownership, Households Without Automobiles, and Urban Traffic Parameters: Are They Related? , 2002 .

[44]  Timothy J. Tardiff,et al.  Vehicle choice models: Review of previous studies and directions for further research☆ , 1980 .

[45]  P. Kanaroglou,et al.  Modelling car ownership in urban areas: a case study of Hamilton, Canada , 2008 .

[46]  Nariida C. Smith,et al.  The Dimensions of Automobile Demand , 1987 .

[47]  G. Ewing,et al.  Assessing Consumer Preferences for Clean-Fuel Vehicles: A Discrete Choice Experiment , 2000 .

[48]  Ryuichi Kitamura,et al.  A review of household dynamic vehicle ownership models: holdings models versus transactions models , 2009 .

[49]  Camilla Kazimi,et al.  Evaluating the Environmental Impact of Alternative-Fuel Vehicles , 1997 .

[50]  Jordan J. Louviere,et al.  Combining sources of preference data , 1998 .

[51]  Ryuichi Kitamura,et al.  Demand for clean-fuel vehicles in California: A discrete-choice stated preference pilot project , 1993 .

[52]  F. Mannering,et al.  A DYNAMIC EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF HOUSEHOLD VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND UTILIZATION , 1985 .

[53]  C. Bhat,et al.  A COMPARISON OF TWO ALTERNATIVE BEHAVIORAL CHOICE MECHANISMS FOR HOUSEHOLD AUTO OWNERSHIP DECISIONS , 1998 .

[54]  Moshe Ben-Akiva,et al.  ESTIMATION AND USE OF DYNAMIC TRANSACTION MODELS OF AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP , 1983 .

[55]  Susan L Handy,et al.  Neighborhood design and vehicle type choice: Evidence from Northern California , 2006 .

[56]  David A. Hensher,et al.  Dimensions of Automobile Demand: A Longitudinal Study of Household Automobile Ownership and Use , 1992 .

[57]  D. Hensher,et al.  Stated Choice Methods: Analysis and Applications , 2000 .

[58]  David S. Bunch,et al.  Automobile Demand and Type Choice , 2007 .

[59]  J. Berkovec,et al.  NEW CAR SALES AND USED CAR STOCKS : A MODEL OF THE AUTOMOBILE MARKET , 1985 .

[60]  D. Potoglou,et al.  Household Demand and Willingness to Pay for Alternative Fuelled Vehicles , 2006 .

[61]  F. Mannering,et al.  An exploratory analysis of automobile leasing by US households , 2002 .

[62]  J. Berkovec,et al.  Forecasting automobile demand using disaggregate choice models , 1985 .

[63]  Kenneth Train,et al.  A disaggregate model of auto-type choice , 1979 .

[64]  Ryuichi Kitamura,et al.  Predicting the market penetration of electric and clean-fuel vehicles , 1993 .

[65]  R. Cervero,et al.  TRAVEL DEMAND AND THE 3DS: DENSITY, DIVERSITY, AND DESIGN , 1997 .

[66]  J. Ryan,et al.  Vehicle-Ownership Model Using Family Structure and Accessibility Application to Honolulu, Hawaii , 1999 .

[67]  R. Sheldon,et al.  Stated preference methods , 1988 .

[68]  Andrew Daly,et al.  Comparison of car ownership models , 2004 .

[69]  Thomas F. Golob,et al.  A Vehicle Use Forecasting Model Based on Revealed and Stated Vehicle Type Choice and Utilisation Data , 1997 .

[70]  John M. Rose,et al.  Applied Choice Analysis: A Primer , 2005 .