Temporal-Spatial Variation of Drought Indicated by SPI and SPEI in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China

The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China (Ningxia) is an important food production area in northwest China severely affected by drought. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were calculated based on monthly meteorological data to explore climate change and variation in drought intensity, duration, frequency, and spatial extent in Ningxia during 1972–2011. Results show that the SPEI is more applicable than the SPI for exploring climate change and drought variation in Ningxia. The Ningxia climate experienced a significant drying tendency. Annual SPEI decreased about 0.37 decade−1 during 1972–2011. Drought was exacerbated by this drying tendency. Regional average duration, maximum duration, intensity, and frequency of drought identified by the SPEI increased by one month, three months, 0.15%, and 36.1%, respectively, during 1992–2011 compared to the period of 1972–1991. The spatial extent of drought identified by the SPEI increased about 14.4% decade−1 in the spring during 1972–2011. Spatially, drought frequency increased from north to south. Average intensity (maximum duration) of drought calculated by the SPEI increased (decreased) northward and southward from the central arid area.

[1]  Chong-Yu Xu,et al.  Observed trends of annual maximum water level and streamflow during past 130 years in the Yangtze River basin, China , 2006 .

[2]  Zongxue Xu,et al.  Spatiotemporal variability of drought and the potential climatological driving factors in the Liao River basin , 2012 .

[3]  A. Mangin,et al.  Detection and estimation trends linked to air quality and mortality on French Riviera over the 1990-2005 period. , 2010, The Science of the total environment.

[4]  G. Tsakiris,et al.  Regional Drought Assessment Based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) , 2007 .

[5]  Qing Dong,et al.  Spatio-temporal variability of drought over northern China and its relationships with Indian-Pacific sea surface temperatures , 2013, Asia-Pacific Environmental Remote Sensing.

[6]  Qingcun Zeng,et al.  A unified monsoon index , 2002 .

[7]  Tianjie Lei,et al.  The alleviating trend of drought in the Huang‐Huai‐Hai Plain of China based on the daily SPEI , 2015 .

[8]  S. Vicente‐Serrano,et al.  A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index , 2009 .

[9]  B. Lloyd‐Hughes,et al.  A drought climatology for Europe , 2002 .

[10]  Bin Wang,et al.  Circumglobal Teleconnection in the Northern Hemisphere Summer , 2005 .

[11]  Hans von Storch,et al.  Misuses of Statistical Analysis in Climate Research , 1995 .

[12]  D. Khalili,et al.  Factors Influencing Markov Chains Predictability Characteristics, Utilizing SPI, RDI, EDI and SPEI Drought Indices in Different Climatic Zones , 2013, Water Resources Management.

[13]  M. Naresh Kumar,et al.  On the use of Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI) for drought intensity assessment , 2009 .

[14]  A. Aghakouchak,et al.  Multivariate Standardized Drought Index: A parametric multi-index model , 2013 .

[15]  M. Bayazit,et al.  To prewhiten or not to prewhiten in trend analysis? , 2007 .

[16]  T. McKee,et al.  Drought monitoring with multiple time scales , 1995 .

[17]  L. Yanjun,et al.  Analysis of Drought Evolvement Characteristics Based on Standardized Precipitation Index in the Huaihe River Basin , 2012 .

[18]  F. Kogan.  Droughts of the Late 1980s in the United States as Derived from NOAA Polar-Orbiting Satellite Data , 1995 .

[19]  I. T. Jolliffe,et al.  Analysis of Climate Variability. Applications of Statistical Techniques , 1997 .

[20]  Sheng Yue,et al.  Applicability of prewhitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann‐Kendall test , 2002 .

[21]  H. V. D. Dool,et al.  Sensitivity of Teleconnection Patterns to the Sign of Their Primary Action Center , 2003 .

[22]  Richard R. Heim,et al.  Are droughts becoming more frequent or severe in China based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index: 1951–2010? , 2011 .

[23]  J. Almedeij.  Drought Analysis for Kuwait Using Standardized Precipitation Index , 2014, TheScientificWorldJournal.

[24]  Yihui Ding,et al.  Inter‐decadal variation of the summer precipitation in East China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon. Part I: Observed evidences , 2008 .

[25]  B. Rudolf,et al.  World Map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated , 2006 .

[26]  D. Zhang,et al.  Relationship between NAO and drought disasters in northwestern China in the last millennium , 2011 .

[27]  Qiming Qin,et al.  Evaluation of MODIS derived perpendicular drought index for estimation of surface dryness over northwestern China , 2008 .

[28]  Min-Won Jang,et al.  A decision support system for agricultural drought management using risk assessment , 2012, Paddy and Water Environment.

[29]  D. C. Edwards,et al.  Characteristics of 20th Century Drought in the United States at Multiple Time Scales. , 1997 .

[30]  Y. Meng,et al.  An analysis of the drought in Yunnan, China, from a perspective of society drought severity , 2013, Natural Hazards.

[31]  N. Guttman.  On the Sensitivity of Sample L Moments to Sample Size , 1994 .

[32]  A. Barnston,et al.  Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns , 1987 .

[33]  D. Conway,et al.  Rural livelihoods and climate variability in Ningxia, Northwest China , 2013, Climatic Change.

[34]  Sanjiv Kumar,et al.  Streamflow trends in Indiana: Effects of long term persistence, precipitation and subsurface drains , 2009 .

[35]  C. W. Thornthwaite.  An approach toward a rational classification of climate. , 1948 .

[36]  Naiming Xie,et al.  China’s regional meteorological disaster loss analysis and evaluation based on grey cluster model , 2014, Natural Hazards.

[37]  Jianjun Wu,et al.  Temporal-spatial characteristics of severe drought events and their impact on agriculture on a global scale , 2014 .

[38]  T. McKee,et al.  THE RELATIONSHIP OF DROUGHT FREQUENCY AND DURATION TO TIME SCALES , 1993 .

[39]  S. Morid,et al.  Comparison of seven meteorological indices for drought monitoring in Iran , 2006 .

[40]  Chong-Yu Xu,et al.  Statistical behaviours of precipitation regimes in China and their links with atmospheric circulation 1960–2005 , 2011 .

[41]  Tiexi Chen,et al.  A global analysis of the impact of drought on net primary productivity , 2013 .

[42]  K. Duan,et al.  Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the Dipole Oscillation of summer precipitation over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau , 2015 .

[43]  Zhi-Yong Yin,et al.  Spatial and Temporal Variation of Summer Precipitation over the Eastern Tibetan Plateau and the North Atlantic Oscillation , 2001 .

[44]  Vijay P. Singh,et al.  Parameter estimation for 3-parameter log-logistic distribution (LLD3) by Pome , 1993 .

[45]  M. Abramowitz,et al.  Handbook of Mathematical Functions With Formulas, Graphs and Mathematical Tables (National Bureau of Standards Applied Mathematics Series No. 55) , 1965 .

[46]  P. Barbosa,et al.  World drought frequency, duration, and severity for 1951–2010 , 2014 .

[47]  R. Trigo,et al.  Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe , 2014 .

[48]  S. Manabe,et al.  The Effects of Orography on Midlatitude Northern Hemisphere Dry Climates , 1992 .

[49]  Wen Wang,et al.  Drought severity change in China during 1961–2012 indicated by SPI and SPEI , 2015, Natural Hazards.

[50]  A. Dai.  Characteristics and trends in various forms of the Palmer Drought Severity Index during 1900–2008 , 2011 .

[51]  F. KEMAL. SÖNMEZ,et al.  An Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Dimension of Drought Vulnerability in Turkey Using the Standardized Precipitation Index , 2005 .

[52]  S. Vicente‐Serrano,et al.  Comment on “Characteristics and trends in various forms of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) during 1900–2008” by Aiguo Dai , 2011 .

[53]  Guo Qiyun.  Interdecadal Variability of East-Asian Summer Monsoon and Its Impact on the Climate of China , 2003 .

[54]  Lei Zhou,et al.  Establishing and assessing the Integrated Surface Drought Index (ISDI) for agricultural drought monitoring in mid-eastern China , 2013, Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinformation.

[55]  Y. Hong,et al.  Examining the influence of river-lake interaction on the drought and water resources in the Poyang Lake basin , 2015 .

[56]  Petr Štěpánek,et al.  Observed spatiotemporal characteristics of drought on various time scales over the Czech Republic , 2014, Theoretical and Applied Climatology.

[57]  Milan Gocic,et al.  Analysis of precipitation and drought data in Serbia over the period 1980–2010 , 2013 .

[58]  Amir AghaKouchak,et al.  Global trends and patterns of drought from space , 2014, Theoretical and Applied Climatology.

[59]  L. Ji,et al.  Assessing vegetation response to drought in the northern Great Plains using vegetation and drought indices , 2003 .

[60]  V. Potop.  Evolution of drought severity and its impact on corn in the Republic of Moldova , 2011 .

[61]  C. Rosenzweig,et al.  Improved Ground Hydrology Calculations for Global Climate Models (GCMs): Soil Water Movement and Evapotranspiration , 1988 .

[62]  R. Nagarajan,et al.  Spatio-temporal drought assessment in Tel river basin using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and GIS , 2011 .

[63]  M. R. Mansouri Daneshvar,et al.  Assessment of drought hazard impact on wheat cultivation using standardized precipitation index in Iran , 2013, Arabian Journal of Geosciences.

[64]  Bin Wang,et al.  How to Measure the Strength of the East Asian Summer Monsoon , 2008 .

[65]  Josef Soukup,et al.  Drought evolution at various time scales in the lowland regions and their impact on vegetable crops in the Czech Republic , 2012 .