The impact of macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic forces on hotel stock returns

Abstract This study aimed to examine the relationship between macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic variables and hotel stock returns using hotel companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The regression analysis indicated that among the macroeconomic variables (i.e., money supply, the growth rate of industrial production, expected inflation, the change of unemployment rate, and the yield spread), only money supply and the unemployment rate significantly explained the movement of hotel stock returns. On the other hand, all non-macroeconomic forces selected (i.e., presidential elections, the 921 earthquake, the 2003 Iraqi war, the outbreak of SARS, sports mega-events, the Asian financial crisis, and the 911 terrorist attacks) had significant influences on the hotel stock returns. The empirical results of this study may be used as valuable information for local and global stock investors who seek an investment opportunity in the hospitality industry.

[1]  M. Goldstein,et al.  The Asian financial crisis , 1998 .

[2]  James G. MacKinnon,et al.  Critical Values for Cointegration Tests , 1990 .

[3]  C. Barrows,et al.  Use of macroeconomic variables to evaluate selected hospitality stock returns in the U.S. , 1994 .

[4]  Mads Asprem,et al.  Stock prices, asset portfolios and macroeconomic variables in ten European countries , 1989 .

[5]  J. Campbell Stock Returns and the Term Structure , 1985 .

[6]  W. Fuller,et al.  LIKELIHOOD RATIO STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE TIME SERIES WITH A UNIT ROOT , 1981 .

[7]  W. Newey,et al.  A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelationconsistent Covariance Matrix , 1986 .

[8]  Gerald R. Jensen,et al.  Business conditions, monetary policy, and expected security returns , 1996 .

[9]  L. Barton Crisis Management , 1994 .

[10]  Feng-shun Bin,et al.  Effects of legislation events on US gaming stock returns and market turnings , 2001 .

[11]  P. Williams Crisis Management , 1972, Contemporary Strategy.

[12]  S. Sönmez,et al.  Tourism in Crisis: Managing the Effects of Terrorism , 1999 .

[13]  Hospitality Investment Return, Risk, and Performance Indexes: a Ten-Year Examination , 1994 .

[14]  Michael S. Rozeff Dividend yields are equity risk premiums , 1984 .

[15]  Clive W. J. Granger,et al.  Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration , 1991 .

[16]  S. Ross,et al.  Economic Forces and the Stock Market , 1986 .

[17]  Donald B. Keim,et al.  Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets , 1986 .

[18]  G. W. Trivoli,et al.  Time–lagged interactions between stocks prices and selected economic variables , 1991 .

[19]  J. Choi,et al.  Does the stock market predict real activity? Time series evidence from the G-7 countries , 1999 .

[20]  Anil K. Bera,et al.  Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals , 1980 .

[21]  W. Wasserfallen Macroeconomics news and the stock market: Evidence from Europe , 1989 .

[22]  G. Stafford,et al.  Chapter 16 – Crisis Management and Recovery: How Washington, DC, Hotels Responded to Terrorism , 2006 .

[23]  W. Newey,et al.  A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelationconsistent Covariance Matrix , 1986 .

[24]  E. Fama,et al.  Dividend yields and expected stock returns , 1988 .

[25]  Nai-fu Chen,et al.  Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy , 1991 .

[26]  An Examination of the Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor , 1990 .

[27]  James R. Booth,et al.  Economic Factors, Monetary Policy, and Expected Returns on Stocks and Bonds , 1997 .

[28]  R. Brooks,et al.  The Sydney Olympic Games announcement and Australian stock market reaction , 2000 .

[29]  E. Fama Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money , 1981 .

[30]  G. Schwert,et al.  Stock Returns and Real Activity: a Century of Evidence , 1990 .

[31]  Douglas T. Breeden An Intertemporal Asset Pricing Model with Stochastic Consumption and Investment Opportunities , 1979 .

[32]  G. Box,et al.  On a measure of lack of fit in time series models , 1978 .

[33]  P. Phillips Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression , 1988 .

[34]  R. Lucas ASSET PRICES IN AN EXCHANGE ECONOMY , 1978 .

[35]  Gautam Kaul,et al.  Stock returns and inflation: The role of the monetary sector , 1987 .